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Anyone can Access Deleted and Private Repository Data on GitHub
(trufflesecurity.com)
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Yes, but only in very limited circumstances. If you:
then commits A and B are publicly visible, but commit C is not.
Per the linked Github docs:
Modifying the above situation to start with a public repo:
Commit B remains visible.
A version of this where step 3 is to take the fork private isn’t feasible because you can’t take a fork private - you have to duplicate the repo. And duplicated repos aren’t part of the same repository network in the way that forks are, so the same situation wouldn’t apply.
The second situation you listed is incredibly common, as the blog post explains.