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Kamala Harris Overtakes Trump in First Major Poll Since Biden Exit From Race (www.mediaite.com)

submitted 3 months ago by Beaver@lemmy.ca to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] lennybird@lemmy.world 4 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Can we agree on these bullet-points? If so I'll adjust and use going forward.

Individual polls from reputable pollsters can be a barometer for a snapshot in time, but they may also be outliers.
An aggregation of many reputable polls during the same period of time is a more accurate snapshot in time.
Long-term trends can be very useful and give more extrapolative trajectories (e.g., the long-term downward decline of Biden's aggregate national approval ratings and his steady decline in swing-states leading to a change in strategy and his stepping down).
Still, such polls may not accurately represent fringe groups (though many pollsters compensate in a variety of ways).
We shouldn't just blindly follow the polls (blind-leading-the-blind mentality)—e.g., if the case is never made for something, then it never gets popular. Bernie Sanders heavily advocated for Universal Healthcare and we of course have seen an adjustment in polling instead of simply reacting to its initial unpopularity—but we also shouldn't ignore trends.
Polls don't dictate what people do in the moment, or say or do later; instead, they're a reflection of where they are at in the moment.
Every advocate should have the mindset of trying to change polls to their advantage; this by active campaigning (canvassing, phone-banking, fundraising, etc.), change of messaging, etc.
Context should always be considered when discussing polling. (e.g., in isolation, Biden's debate could be considered, "just one bad night, and we can swing polls back," without considering the long-term concern that was already present over his immutable vice — age/cognitive-decline.)
No matter what the polls say, winning, tying, or losing... Always and I mean always Register and VOTE. Not just this, but drag 3-5 other people to register and vote with you.

[-] jhymesba@lemmy.world 1 points 3 months ago

Yeah. This can be quibbled with, but it puts the most important thing at the bottom: Polls are meaningless unless you GOTV.

this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024

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