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this post was submitted on 28 Jul 2024
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Polling is not an inferior source to your gut feelings.
You need to look at the actual statistical science. If you find 45% support for something, but there's a 3% margin of error with a 95% conference interval, then there's a 95% chance that the true value is anywhere from 42-48%. And that's with a perfect, simple random sample.
It has its uses, but you have to be aware of its limitations and caveats.
But whats the interval on shit you just make up? Probably not as good a source as the polling.
Are you just arguing for the sake of arguing? I'm saying that even a perfect sample will not necessarily lead to an accurate conclusion, and having a perfect sample is incredibly difficult on top of that.
Now factor in a major event occurring, and people's opinions and thoughts being in flux. To properly gauge mood, you need to give people time to process -- hence why immediate polling is not helpful.
You do realize that the person you originally responded to was saying that polls probably aren't helpful right now, not that polls are universally useless?
Check the context of this thread. Then my words will make more sense and your point reveals itself to be coping to reaffirm unscientific bias.
Maybe not your gut feelings.