There was a time when I thought that the arrival of easy global communication and information would lead to the decline of religion, but I don’t anymore.

I'd argue the biggest harm to organized religion has been the mass migration caused by the globalization of trade. People move too frequently and travel too far to reliably find communities that share their views.

Christianity may have declined to some extent, but a lot of the people leaving the church(s) have just replaced it with vague spirituality, homebrew beliefs, or other looser faiths.

Sure. People are sinking to a lower common denominator of generic mysticism and superstition. But that doesn't preclude materialism, humanism, or rationality. It's a spirituality of the gaps. When you don't have good data, you go with what you have. And that often boils down to rumor and gut-feeling.

These days I’m much more inclined to take seriously the idea that supernatural belief is instinctual. Materialist atheism will, unfortunately, probably remain a fringe belief.

Even the most staunch materialist atheists fall back on habits and heuristics and hearsay when that's all they've got to work with. I wouldn't call that instinctual so much as the rationality of last resort.