TechTakes
Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.
For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community
what the fuck, who's tweeting this on his behalf and what is it meant to accomplish?
new zitron dropped https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money/
Baldur's given his thoughts on Bluesky - he suspects Zitron's downplayed some of AI's risks, chiefly in coding:
There’s even reason to believe that Ed’s downplaying some of the risks because they’re hard to quantify:
- The only plausible growth story today for the stock market as a whole is magical “AI” productivity growth. What happens to the market when that story fails?
- Coding isn’t the biggest “win” for LLMs but its biggest risk
Software dev has a bad habit of skipping research and design and just shipping poorly thought-out prototypes as products. These systems get increasingly harder to update over time and bugs proliferate. LLMs for coding magnify that risk.
We’re seeing companies ship software nobody in the company understands, with edge cases nobody is aware of, and a host of bugs. LLMs lead to code bases that are harder to understand, buggier, and much less secure.
LLMs for coding isn’t a productivity boon but the birth of a major Y2K-style crisis. Fixing Y2K cost the world’s economy over $500 billion USD (corrected for inflation), most of it borne by US institutions and companies.
And Y2K wasn’t promising magical growth on the order of trillions so the perceived loss of a failed AI Bubble in the eyes of the stock market would be much higher
On a related note, I suspect programming/software engineering's public image is going to spectacularly tank in the coming years - between the impending Y2K-style crisis Baldur points out, Silicon Valley going all-in on sucking up to Trump, and the myriad ways the slop-nami has hurt artists and non-artists alike, the pieces are in place to paint an image of programmers as incompetent fools at best and unrepentant fascists at worst.
These are also — and I do not believe there are any use cases that justify this — not a counterbalance for the ruinous financial and environmental costs of generative AI. It is the leaded gasoline of tech, where the boost to engine performance didn’t outweigh the horrific health impacts it inflicted.
ed reads techtakes? i wonder how far this analogy disseminated
In other news, Discord's jumped on the AI bandwagon, and users are Not Happy^tm^:
So they had the new Claude hooked up to some tools so that it could play Pokemon red. Somewhat impressive (at least to me!) It was able to beat lt surge after several days of play. They had a stream demo'ing it on twitch and despite the on paper result of getting 3 gym badges, poor fellas got stuck in Viridian forest trying to find the exit to the maze.
As far as finding the exit goes... I guess you could say he was stumped? (MODS PLEASE DONT BAN)
strim if anyone is curious. Yes, i know this is clever advertising for anthropic, but i do find it cute and maybe someone else will?
any of y'all running short on your supply of really tortured sentences? no worries, I've got a supply drop
What will count, he says, is industrial revolution-style irreversible growth.
While AI is improving fast, it remains wildly flawed
Moreover, a recent Eye on the Market [PDF] report by Michael Cembalest, chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for JP Morgan Asset Management, questions whether the immense investments in AI and the infrastructure required to support it, already made or committed by the tech giants, will ever pay off
that paragraph doesn't punch very hard, but the (2024) pdf that it links to starts out with this as a bolded title line:
A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market
which, well, 1) immensely tortured sentence, 2) "aww poor baby, etc etc"
entertained by the rapid fire "hmm, shit, is all this worth it?" that's Ever So Suddenly boiling up everywhere. bet it's entirely unrelated to people working on quarterly portfolio reviews, tho
I stumbled upon this poster while trying to figure out what linux distro normal people are using these days, and there’s something about their particular brand of confident incorrectness. please enjoy the posts of someone who’s either a relatively finely tuned impolite disagreement bot or a human very carefully emulating one:
- weirdly extremely into everything red hat
- outrageously bad takes, repeated frequently in all the Linux beginner subs, never called out because “hey fucker I know you’re bullshitting and no I don’t have to explain myself” gets punished by the mods of those subs
- very quickly carries conversation into nested subthreads where the downvotes can’t get them
- accuses other posters of using AI to generate the posts they disagree with
- when called out for sounding like AI, explains that they use it “only to translate”
- just the perfect embodiment of a fucking terrible linux guy, I swear this is where the microsoft research money goes
as in, distro for normal people? (for arbitrary value of normal, that is) distrowatch ranks mint #1, and i also use it because i'm lazy and while i could use something else, It Just Works™
that’s the one I ended up grabbing, and from the setup-only usage I’ve been giving it, it’s surprisingly good
Enjoy this MoreWronger cosplaying as Barney Stinson
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a4tPMomzHhCunwqLX/you-can-just-wear-a-suit