Actual Discussion

I called this in July of 2016 when Trump won the GOP nomination. I said, "Historians will mark this day as the beginning of the dissolution of the united states of America." People actually laughed at me.

IMO things have set in motion that cannot be stopped.

Here's my predictions.

1. Millions of Americans are going to die. Be it starvation, hospitals shutting down, or catastrophic weather events with no federal response.

2. California will bypass the federal government and fund agencies like FEMA directly. This will trigger a mass restructuring of the fiscal relationship between the states and the federal government.

3. As the USA divests itself from steel and semiconductor supply chains, backbone companies like Apple and Lougheed Martin will leave the USA for the EU.

4. In the short term agriculture and domestic manufacturing will plummet. In the long term, a crashing US dollar and real estate market will incentivize foreign investment into those industries.

5. Trump will die in office. (I think he wants to die in office, at this point.) His succession will be a disaster and result in a DNC government. His backers will allow this because all they cared about was eliminating POCs and stealing the publics money. Their agenda will be right on schedule.

6. Without it's supply chains and military contractors, the USA will eventually lose military dominance to China. The companies and their supply chains will migrate to EU & Commonwealth countries; who will form a military pack to counter China (& to a lesser degree Russia)

7. Canada will replace the USA in leading the global economy. The CAD will become a world reserve currency. Unlike the EU Canada is geographically better positioned to export globally. As Canadian energy and agriculture exports increase so will the incentive for foreign governments to hold CAD.

8. Climate Change will catastrophically interrupt the global food supply in North America; as well as drastically increase energy requirements and trigger mass population displacement. This will accelerate the "switcheroo" of US & Canada on the world economic stage.

9. The aging populations in developed nations will set the stage for developing countries, with growing populations, to gain much more leverage dealing with their more developed trading partners. USA & China will trade infrastructure investments for the agriculture and manufacturing they can no longer sustain domestically. Foreign investment from developing countries into developed countries will trend.

10. The next 'Pandemic' will technically remain an "epidemic" because air travel and global tourism will be a fraction of what it is now. Due to steel supply interruptions and manufacturer relocations, airlines will lack the fleets and budgets to maintain the service levels we see now.

11. MAGA will replace the KKK and it will never completely go away unfortunately.

I'll bite on tariffs. In a vacuum, my default opinion is that tariffs impinge on individual liberties and distort economies—they are a form of government interference and should be avoided. Since we do not live in a vacuum, I imagine two scenarios in which I'm okay with import tariffs:

• Countries who don't play fair should be treated differently from countries who do. For example, if a country subsidizes their own industries to make them more competitive in the global marketplace, then other countries are justified in imposing proportionate tariffs against that country. Similarly, if a country imposes import tariffs, then other countries are justified in imposing their own proportionate tariffs against that country.
• If an industry is vital to national security, then this changes the calculus significantly. A contemporary example is energy independence from belligerent regimes. *cough* Russia *cough*

Barring these scenarios, I favor allowing the markets to determine the winners through free and fair competition.

In the future you will look back on all the 'cool headed deliberation' you had online before fascism took over and realize how much a waste of time it all was.

We have an illegitimate government that ignores the Constitution and judicial branch and people are in here with opinions about trade deficits that don't even qualify to be kindergarten grade