I see 25% twice so my bet is on 50%.
this post was submitted on 06 May 2025
631 points (97.4% liked)
Science Memes
14690 readers
2291 users here now
Welcome to c/science_memes @ Mander.xyz!
A place for majestic STEMLORD peacocking, as well as memes about the realities of working in a lab.
Rules
- Don't throw mud. Behave like an intellectual and remember the human.
- Keep it rooted (on topic).
- No spam.
- Infographics welcome, get schooled.
This is a science community. We use the Dawkins definition of meme.
Research Committee
Other Mander Communities
Science and Research
Biology and Life Sciences
- !abiogenesis@mander.xyz
- !animal-behavior@mander.xyz
- !anthropology@mander.xyz
- !arachnology@mander.xyz
- !balconygardening@slrpnk.net
- !biodiversity@mander.xyz
- !biology@mander.xyz
- !biophysics@mander.xyz
- !botany@mander.xyz
- !ecology@mander.xyz
- !entomology@mander.xyz
- !fermentation@mander.xyz
- !herpetology@mander.xyz
- !houseplants@mander.xyz
- !medicine@mander.xyz
- !microscopy@mander.xyz
- !mycology@mander.xyz
- !nudibranchs@mander.xyz
- !nutrition@mander.xyz
- !palaeoecology@mander.xyz
- !palaeontology@mander.xyz
- !photosynthesis@mander.xyz
- !plantid@mander.xyz
- !plants@mander.xyz
- !reptiles and amphibians@mander.xyz
Physical Sciences
- !astronomy@mander.xyz
- !chemistry@mander.xyz
- !earthscience@mander.xyz
- !geography@mander.xyz
- !geospatial@mander.xyz
- !nuclear@mander.xyz
- !physics@mander.xyz
- !quantum-computing@mander.xyz
- !spectroscopy@mander.xyz
Humanities and Social Sciences
Practical and Applied Sciences
- !exercise-and sports-science@mander.xyz
- !gardening@mander.xyz
- !self sufficiency@mander.xyz
- !soilscience@slrpnk.net
- !terrariums@mander.xyz
- !timelapse@mander.xyz
Memes
Miscellaneous
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
It was only the next day that I returned to this post realising that "this question" isn't even defined.
33% innit
It is 33% if the answer itself is randomly chosen from 25%, 50%, and 60%. Then you have:
If the answer is 25%: A 1/2 chance of guessing right
If the answer is 50%: A 1/4 chance of guessing right
If the answer is 60%: A 1/4 chance of guessing right
And 1/3*1/2 + 1/3*1/4 + 1/3*1/4 = 1/3, or 33.333...% chance
If the answer is randomly chosen from A, B, C, and D (With A or D being picked meaning D or A are also good, so 25% has a 50% chance of being the answer) then your probability of being right changes to 37.5%.
This would hold up if the question were less purposely obtuse, like asking "What would be the probability of answering the following question correctly if guessing from A, B, C and D randomly, if its answer were also chosen from A, B, C and D at random?", with the choices being something like "A: A or D, B: B, C: C, D: A or D"
iis
100 **** percent, i'm all in!
I argue it's still 25%, because the answer is either a,b,c, or d, you can only choose 1, regardless of the possible answer having two slots.
Yup. And it says pick at random. Not apply a bunch of bullshit self mastubatory lines of thinking. Ultimately, 1 of those answers are keyed as correct, 3 are not. It's 25% if you pick at random. If you're applying a bunch of logic into it you're no longer following the parameters anyway.
You can just say "I don't understand probability (or the word 'if')" next time and save a whole bunch of effort.
load more comments
(1 replies)
Since two of them are the same, you have a 50% chance of picking something that is 33% of the possible answers. The other two, you have 25% chance of picking something that us 33% of the possible answers.
So 50%33% + 2 (33%*25%)= 33%
So your chances of being right is 33% cause there is effectively 3 choices.
load more comments
(2 replies)
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
There's a reason I dropped probability at school.
I choose 75%