Provoked is a masterclass in historical scholarship, offering a well researched, honest, and rigorous account of the origins of the Ukraine war. The book’s central thesis is that the West systematically provoked Russia into conflict through decades of duplicitous policymaking. Horton compiles a mountain of evidence to dismantle the simplistic “unprovoked aggression” narrative peddled by Western media and politicians.
The book’s main strength lies in its exhaustive use of primary sources to trace NATO’s broken promises to Russia. While many are vaguely aware of the infamous 1990 Baker-Gorbachev exchange (where the U.S. secretary of state vowed NATO would not expand “one inch eastward”), Horton unearths dozens of similar assurances from Western leaders. For instance, he cites West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher’s 1990 press conference with James Baker, where both men declared NATO had “no intention to extend… towards the East,” a pledge repeated to Soviet officials by British Prime Minister John Major and German diplomat Jürgen Chrobog. Even U.S. State Department officials, like Raymond Seitz, affirmed in internal meetings that NATO would not exploit Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe.
Yet as Horton reveals, Western leaders were already scheming to expand NATO even as these promises were made. By 1991, NATO’s Rome Summit laid the groundwork for enlargement, and by 1992, U.S. strategists openly pursued expansion to cement “Euro-American hegemony.” This pattern of deception of NATO methodically breaching assurances to Russia forms the book’s core narrative. Horton argues that Western elites, driven by hubris and short-term gains, ignored Russia’s legitimate security concerns, treating it not as a defeated rival to be contained.
It's worth noting that Horton, being a libertarian, does not romanticize Russia, and he condemns 2022 invasion as a strategic blunder. His aim isn't to justify Russian actions, but to show how NATO’s encroaching militarily, backing the 2014 Maidan coup, and dismissing diplomacy by Western leaders fostered the very aggression they now decry.
I highly recommend the book as a resource for understanding the background behind the conflict.