I just think they're neat!
Grow your own food.
Start supporting your local animal farms and find yourself a butcher.
It’s time to become self dependent and we are in a unique period of time where we have the knowledge and material to do it on an individual and hopefully local level.
A lot of people already do this, just not the ones in your circle!
Hi, I live in a rented apartment, what can I do?
Hmm that’s tuff bro.
have to get creative.
Look up urban farming and still try get to know everyone at your local farmers market.
The American economy is three pyramid schemes in a trench coat
2.7% for the rich, they don't care what the serfs eat
Meat isn't food, it is a luxury good made by refining mountains of actual food through the body of a vulnerable individual. Of fucking COURSE it's expensive. It's been cheep for decades because you pay for it in your taxes and I'm fucking sick of paying so much money so you can have cheap meat. Fucking deal with it.
Brazil is the largest exporter of meat and Trump is tariffing them 50%
so, more than 2.7% in that category. almost like that claimed 2.7% is an intentionally misleading choice of "measure" of central tendency.
Sure, and less than 2.7% in other categories. That's how averages work...
if i alert someone of the possibility of earning either 0 or 100 dollars at a coinflip by saying "the average payout is 50 dollars," while ive said something true, ive also said something misleading. a reasonable person might say, "0, but you said i could earn 50!" and would you expect them to be mollified by me saying, "no no no, its actually only the average is 50. i was clear about this up front." its like a student turning in their math homework and they didnt simplify the expression at the end, complaining about the teacher insisting you have to do all the work to earn full credit.
Are you implying the average person doesn't understand averages? That's ridiculous! I could understand the average person not understanding standard deviations and other statistical terms, but a simple average is something people deal with every day.
All the inflation figure means is how much your money is getting weaker year over year. If you take everyone's budget, the average person will be spending that much more year over year. Individual circumstances will certainly vary, such as vegans not being impacted by egg shortages. In this case, beef supply has been reduced, causing prices to increase. This is unlikely to be a long term thing, and prices will return to "normal" (after regular inflation is taken into account) once supply returns to normal. That happened with eggs this year, prices were ridiculous at the start when hen populations were slashed due to disease outbreak, and now production has returned and prices are about where they were a year ago.
The meat shortage is a temporary thing caused by reduced herd populations and tariffs on Brazilian imports, but will likely last a lot longer than the egg supply costs because herds take longer to repopulate than chicken broods.
It's inane to expect everything to change prices in lockstep. We use averages to smooth over distortions in one area to get a better idea of what's going on more broadly (i.e. are increased prices part of a broader inflationary trend, or is one area seeing a unique spike?).
We use averages to smooth over distortions in one area to get a better idea of what’s going on more broadly
"we" are using a different meaning of the word average I think. When I say mean, the point is to give an idea of where the "center" of the dataset is, not what the dataset is shaped like.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics
Misuse of Statistics: Using numbers in such a manner that – either by intent or through ignorance or carelessness – the conclusions are unjustified or incorrect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_averages
the often overlooked fact that the mean does not provide any information about the shape of the probability distribution of a data set or skewness, and that decisions or analysis based on only the mean—as opposed to median and standard deviation—may be faulty.
Are you implying the average person doesn’t understand averages?
That's an interesting thing to say. Tell me more about that.
It takes so much into account that it becomes almost meaningless for the average person.
So some people will get it all, some nothing, but the average person might struggle with it?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF112
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Meats, Poultry, Fish, and Eggs in U.S. City Average (Seasonally Adjusted)
Entire Time Series (1967+) Normalized to '82-'84 =100:
Last 5 Years (2020+), Renormalized to 100 = Jan 2020:
So, yeah, thats about 35% increase in 5 years, if you specifically look at the Meat Poultry Fish Eggs component of the CPI.
The CPI numbers, the, '2.5%' inflation number... thats ~~month to month~~ the last 12 months, annualized, like an APR, ... and they are a weighted basket of many, many different subcomponents such as this.
Sort of analagous to how a say, 10% APR... well, thats annualized, so to get the monthly interest rate, you roughly divide by 12... but technically it is more complicated, because that monthly interest rate is actually compounding every month over month.
So the acutal monthly rate is:
MPR = [ ( 1 + APR ) ^ ( 1 / 12 ) ] - 1
If you treat an ~35% increase over almost 5 years with this kind of math, then you end up with an average, effective monthly inflation rate for meat and eggs of:
~~6.642%, since Jan 2020.~~
EDIT: I fucked up the math, goddamned javascript based web calculator on shitty mobile phone,.here's something more accurate:
4.984%, since July 2020.
(I'm basically just doing napkin math here, picking specifically July 2020 just because its the 5Y window, normally you'd use a longer period of stability to base this off of, but hopefully ya'll get the idea)
Also worth noting, the latest August numbers are of course backward looking, in time. So, if these price pics in the OP image are literally from today... they may not be reflected in the numbers untill next month.
... Assuming Trump has not destroyed the BLS/FRED by then, who fucking knows.
.........
Why doesn't this line up with broader inflation?
Well, lots of reasons, I'm going to pick probably the biggest one, as opposed to writing an entire PhD level dissertation...
The CPI, the big headline number... is based on an average basket of goods and services that, ie, a weighted index, and uh... that basket, those weights, represent the average, the mean... not the median.
Here's 2022.
Yep thats a household that makes $94k before taxes, $83k after taxes.
In 2022, the US Median after tax household income was... $64k.
So, the entire basket, and thus CPI, is thus weighted toward the spending patterns of people about 1 standard deviation higher than the median household income.
Rich people do not have the same spending basket as poorer people, poorer people disproportionally spend a lot more of their income on food, rent/mortgage, gas / car expenses...
... And as wealth disparity, and wealth transfer to the elites gets worse and worse, the reported CPI thus underreports actual inflation for more and more people.
........
Hope all these fun numbers help explain some things.
.........
EDIT 2:
Without having to doing a bunch of math yourself...
Probably look at the CPI-U series and components instead of the broader CPI... as the U refers to Urban, and something like 80% of Americans live in what is considered an Urban area.
So looking at the CPI-U is probably a relatively easy way to get a somewhay more realistic look at price levels that actual people pay... but the flipside is that the wealthy disparity is even more lopsided in Urban areas... uh, good luck, lol.
.........
The financial news and media still focus on the broader CPI... basically because of outdated tradition.
Much like how they almost never pay attention the BLS employment number revisions... unless they are very very bad.
You don't need to be very smart to have money, basically just lucky. Or ruthless.
.......
EDIT 3
Ok, using the actual numbers from OP Image... maybe this can demonsrate the power of compound interest.
Thats a 1y difference of +45.496%, in $/lb of beef.
All it takes to get that, in one year...
Is an average, compounding, 3.1742% price increase every month, for 12 months.
Exponential equations run away fast, and human brains tend to default to thinking of linear relationships... not exponential... and thats why credit card companies make so much money, lol.
Anyway, yeah, check this CPI U meat/eggs subcomponent next month to see august price levels, and if they do a massive jump, or if data is now considered a woke diversity hire and now banned shrug
This was a great read. Thanks for taking the time to post this.
How dare this user assault U.S. with egghead facts and numbers. Doesn't he know they're eating the cats?!
USA! USA!
/s
I'm just chiming in to say, yeah, the logic of this is directly in line with the statistics, and economics that I learned in college. I drifted away from it and I haven't run the numbers myself, but I have no reason to doubt the calculations.
I agree with you, and I'm hoping that will reinforce to others that this is far more complex than most people can comprehend. It's certainly more complex than what the Whitehouse economists seem to understand.... Regardless, I think you said it perfectly with "exponential equations run away fast", and I think that might even be understating it; especially that the average person doesn't "get" how quickly compound rates can increase the costs of things over time.
I understand that they have to set limits for themselves or they'll be doing calculations all year and never get enough done to have the whole picture. What they are working from is certainly not the whole picture. Regardless, the math doesn't lie.
If things keep up like this, I think that in less than one quarter, we'll see the numbers skyrocket.
I appreciate the reinforcement that I am not insane, genuienly.
Struggled with impostor syndrome for a loooong time, and uh... welp, yeah, turns out I spent roughly 2 decades being a lot more right than wrong (not just specifically on this), and everyone else actually either had no clue what they were talking about, or massive unexamind normalcy bias, ignorant of the concept of a state change, a phase transition.
... So as the world now burns, I at least find a modicum of horrendous solace in knowing that I was at least not overreacting... though I obviously wish more people had listened to me and taken me seriously, at least ... I tried ... thus my conscious is clear.
You're leaving out the substitution principle.
If a can of Spam becomes cheaper than actual meat then the CPI will substitute them as "equal". Cheese Wiz is just as "cheese" as stuff that comes out of a cow.
CPI is nothing but a gamed statistic. It's fake. Even then they can't pretend all is hunky dory.
People need to learn that when they hear 'inflation is down', it doesn't mean things are getting cheaper, it just means that the increase in cost is slowing down.
Is it a psychological tactic that news media is using to make consumers more complacent? Who knows. But, whenever I hear someone mention that phrase like things are improving, I die a little more each time.
How it feels when headlines celebrate that inflation is down:
Celebrating the discontinuance of something bad happening... isn't that weird.