this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2025
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Mods, if this is too offtopic, or potentially too incendiary a topic, I understand, I just do not know where else to post this.

Further, I fully agree with the sidebar rule here, let us please keep this civil and keep politics out of this to the greatest extent possible.

DISCLAIMER: Please, everyone and anyone, do not consider any of this discussion to be 100% confirmed fact, this is meant for reasoned consideration, not wild speculation nor justifying motivated reasoning of any kind or flavor.

Further: I do not endorse any political views of this guy, but I think his ballistic analysis is worth consideration.

Please at least watch this linked ~20 minute video.

The guy claims to be either a current or former USMC Scout Sniper, and while I cannot confirm this beyond a reasonable doubt... I also do not really have any reason to doubt that he is.

There is also a longer 2 1/2 hour livestream where this guy presumably goes into more detail, which he has linked on his YT vid page.


Essentially, the guy goes through 4 different camera angles.

He explains that the movement of Kirk's shirt is almost certainly not a result of any kind of body armor as is widely being speculated; instead, it is from how Kirk's lapel mic and earpiece and the wire for such were affixed to him.

He shows that the earpiece actually was captured flying off of Kirk's right ear, and that this is what caused the movement of Kirk's shirt.


But also... he believes that the shot did not come from from straight on.

He believes that the shot came from Kirk's right, and he believes that the wound which....featured the 'geyser' of blood coming out of Kirk's neck... he believes this was an exit wound, not an entry wound.

He believes that the entry would was somewhere on the right side of roughly Kirk's jaw, to behind or around his right ear, that the round traversed through Kirk from his right, to his left, and that it likely functionally killed him instantly either by obliteration of the lower brain, or severing of the spinal cord.

He also believes he may have captured a reflection of a muzzle flash, as well as potentially the muzzle flash itself... indicating a shooting position from Kirk's right... and that the currently most popular and widely accepted (?) idea that the shot came from 150 - 200 yards/meters away, basically from nearly directly in front of Kirk... cannot be the case.


Finally, be believes that the caliber used was not 30.06, that the visible wound is simply too small to indicate a 30.06, that it is more likely a lower caliber round.

At least this is inline with ... what I have been able to gather / opinionate based on the published image of what is supposed to be the weapon used in the incident.

Long story short, I think it is more likely that the rifle is not 'an older Mauser in 30.06' as officially described, but instead, more likely to be either a Remington 700 or Ruger American, a model from roughly the 80s - 90s - 00s, and that it is likely to be in caliber .270 or .243.

Hopefully I have linked this correctly, here is the start of a comment chain from myself, in another thread, a few days back, when I attempted to analyze the presented image of the weapon being claimed to be the weapon.

https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/21325405


If you would, please discuss in the most objective manner you are capable of.

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[–] Bytemeister@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Interesting video, but seems very conspiracy-oriented.

I'd like to make an observation though...

What if the bullet was a 30-06, but the cartridge was not performing optimally, either intentionally de-rated to reduce the chance of overpenetrating the target, or unintentionally degraded due to a problem with the round?

The shooter (if you believe the FBI text messages) said he used his grandfather's rifle. A rifle which was unlikely to be noticed as missing, which to me says "not used that often". So I suspect the cartridge had degraded. I'd say that this explains the neck shot... The round was traveling slower and fell a few extra inches from the intended headshot.

This would also explain why the time from the flash in the video (which could be any number of things really) to time of impact indicates a range of 200 yards, when the shooter was more like 157yards away (last I saw this was the distance, not sure if it is correct). This also explains why the round didn't "blow his head completely off" as at least one other "gun expert" has told me it would do.

Things to still be considered... Where did the round ultimately end up? Even with a lower power cartridge, I'd expect the 30-06 to go all the way through a human neck. Maybe it hit the spine, but I doubt that would have stopped it. As far as I'm aware, they have not recovered the bullet that hit Charlie.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I mean, those are all reasonable points.

If it was the shooter's grandpa's 'older 30.06 Mauser', then yeah, its quite possible the ammo used wasn't exactly fresh, could be degraded, and that could explain a lower muzzle velocity, and thus smaller wound, than what you would otherwise expect.

Yeah I don't think a 30.06 entering at the point of the neck wound 'would have blown his head clean off', but it does seem like there should be more visible damage... particularly as an exit wound... but, I myself at least, have not seen any footage that shows an exit wound at the back of his neck or head or shoulder.

........

For reference:

This is apparently the recovered rifle.

I cannot make out exactly what make or model this thing is.

If it is actually an older mauser, its certainly been uh, renovated over the years... as most military mausers (k98ks) are not in 30.06, they're in 7.92 x 57 mm... i know a lot of folks had those, and did make modifications themselves, but you'd have to rebarrel and rechamber the thing.... and to me, that looks like it could just be a Ruger American or Remington 700 from roughly the 90s, in 270 or 243.

Apparently Mauser sold a bunch of sporterized, civillian versions of the K98 as the M98? Back in the... 60s 70s?

Maybe I am just too young or something?

I can't find much info on that, but apparently those were sold in 30.06, and then this would just be a more modern stock/housing from... the 80s, 90s?

.......

I don't know if this is the FBI/police/whoever being sloppy with reporting calibers...

Or, to throw out another plausible but uncofirmable 'conspiracy theory'... that could just be a dump gun. That is certainly a thing that happens.

The recently released text logs... could be fabricated. I said it in another commemt but ... Steve Banon and Candace Owens are saying they think the text transcript between Robinson and his... partner? lover? ... they don't believe it, because the writing is not the style, length, vocabulary, what you'd expect from a text message exchange, and it also basically just does the prosecutor's job for them, perfectly, hits and confirms literally every salient detail of 'the story' as it currently looks.

Fucking I dunno, man.

......

It also strikes me as odd... how did this gun get to the roof?

Did... he disassemble and reassemble it?

Did he he shove it in his clothes somehow?

Theres a video of apparently the shooter walking toward the school, and he seems to have a limp... but we also have still pictures of him roughly jogging up stairs... with bent legs and knees.

Did he... plant it there days earlier?

???

Also also... from what I've seen, the language thats been used to describe the rifle when it was found was that it was 'wrapped up', this is also the language used in some.of the released chat logs, i think.

Thats not wrapped.

Thats in a cardboard box.

... Maybe my autism is making me too picky with imprecise words here?

Again, I dunno.

.......

And... also, maybe this is just more annoying than 'odd' but uh... as best I can tell, we only have written reports of what was written on the casings, the shells.

We don't actual pictures of them, at least I haven't seen any.

It would probably be a lot easier to confirm the caliber of the weapon... if we just actually could see the casings, especially the uh.. rear or the face with the primer, whatever thats called.

.......

Anyway... yeah it is also weird that they have not recovered the bullet.

They probably should have found that by now, if the front on trajectory is the case... as you say, seems quite unlikely the bullet would completely obliterate itself... it should be somewhere, basically, either stuck in Charlie, or somewhere near the backdrop behind him...

...and yeah, I would tend to expect a 30.06 to stay mostly intact as at least one main piece, going through a human body at least... unless it like... tried to traverse through both femurs and the pelvis, or something like that.

[–] sic_semper_tyrannis@lemmy.today 4 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Unfortunately the video is age restricted so I can't watch it on NewPipe

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Yeah it uh... it doesn't go all the way to showing the horrific blood geyser from Kirk's neck, the presemter does a pretty good job of making his points with as little pictured extreme gore as possible...

But it does show some, and he may have simply marked it as adult only himself.

Unfortinately I do not know of a way around that on newpipe...

I would suggest firefox or librewolf + ublock origin, if you do want to watch it... and maybe make a throwaway youtube/gmail account that you don't use for anything else, if google forces you to have an account to view it?

[–] sic_semper_tyrannis@lemmy.today 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I appreciate your suggestions as well as the writeup you did in the post. I won't be making a Google account..

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 2 days ago

Hey, no problem!

Also, I totally understand wanting to not even have a throwaway google account, lol.

[–] sOlitude24k@lemmy.myserv.one 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I don't know enough about ballistics to make an informed opinion, but the guy in the video lays it out in a pretty easy-to-understand way. Especially the entry/exit wound thing.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Yes, at the very least, I am confident he actually is a Scout Sniper, given that he is able to present his ideas, with video evidence, and then explain them in a rather straightforward and easily understood manner.

Like, uh, particularly when he describes the bullet essentially following along the jaw bone, under the skin / other tissue, before later exiting from under the skin around the lower left of the neck.

This is a thing that happens with gunshot wounds, that the bullet can 'trace' along more dense bones, do more complex trajectories than just basically move in straight lines ... but this is... generally not immediately obvious or intuitive to a layman.

That he knows of this phenomenon and seems quite familiar with it, is strong evidence, in my view, that... he actually is a Scout Sniper.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

If anyone thinks they can tell the caliber of a bullet from an entrance wound on a t-shirt, from crap video, they're full of shit. Don't even need to bother with the rest.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Uh, how much experience do you have with exit wounds?

Its actually quite common to estimate an approximate caliber of an exit would based on its diameter.

Like uh, police, all around the country, do this regularly.

You yourself can go elsewhere on youtube and find tens of thousands of videos of people shooting at the same thing with different calibers to show how the exit wounds differ, some of them even go out of their way to construct as close to anatomically accurate to a human, models, as possible, to do this.

EDIT:

Also, please let me know about your analysis process to determine whether or not a wound is an entrance or an exit wound.

It is quite common that with smaller calibers... you can't even see an emtrance wound without being very close to wound.

This happens all the time, at hospitals, even in autopsies... exit wounds tend to be a lot larger and more apparent, and sometimes it can be difficult for even professional medical personnel to properly locate entrance wounds from smaller calibers, they tend to bleed less profusely.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world -2 points 2 days ago (2 children)

A lot actually, and no one is making any accurate assessments based on crappy video under a shirt.

[–] BussyGyatt@feddit.org 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

if you had watched the video you'd know the blood came out of his fucking neck and not his shirt

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com -1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Oh?

Are you a paramedic?

A hunter?

An ER/OR nurse/doctor surgeon?

Also did you even watch the full video?

I don't know what you're talking about with 'a video under a shirt'.

None of the videos in this guy's clips were 'under' a shirt.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Mortuary assistant. And the video of Kirk only shows the wound through his shirt. Stop trying to push conspiracy bullshit.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Where?

Show me a screenshot where there is a clear wound and hole in the shirt.

Show blood emmenating up from this supposed wound to the chest, not resulting from the later spray of blood from his neck.

Further:

What exactly are you proposing?

That the round came from Kirk's front, did something like hit his sternum?

And then exited out of his neck?

How would that work?

As best I can tell, he wasn't wearing body armor, neither plate nor kevlar.

Plate would be extremely obvious and practically impossible to hide under a thin white t shirt, and even if he did have a low profile, thin kevlar underlayer, a straight on shot from a 30.06 would blow right through that, it would not deflect nearly 90 degrees, no way, thats ludicrous.

Prior to me seeing this video, my conception of the shot was that the wound that 'geysers', in the front, was the entrance wound, and it was coming from more or less straight in front of him, and thus there should be some exit wound roughly on the rear of his neck or head....

But I never saw anything to actually indicate the presence of such a wound, as I went into a PTSD shock episode upon seeing the close up footage of the neck geyser and the life leaving his eyes... and I had to take a fucking break from looking at shit for a while.

I do appreciate that you are a mortician assistant though, thats better than nothing, though I doubt you deal with many bodys other than those that have been dead for some time.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world -1 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Finally, be believes that the caliber used was not 30.06, that the visible wound is simply too small to indicate a 30.06, that it is more likely a lower caliber round.

Flaming pile of bullshit, that gives everything else away as also a bunch of bullshit.

[–] BussyGyatt@feddit.org 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

false dilemma. it is not "either this guy is 100% right about everything or 100% wrong about everything." it is definitely possible for him to have made a mistake (which you have not taken the trouble to show, but merely assert) and also provide otherwise correct analysis. your rejection of the entire analysis based on a single mistaken claim (or rather, the unsubstantiated accusation of a single mistaken claim) shows you to be unreasonable.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 0 points 2 days ago (1 children)

It doesn't matter if he's right or wrong. Making the assertion means he's an idiot.

You are way too invested in this bullshit. Go touch some grass.

[–] BussyGyatt@feddit.org 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

It doesn’t matter if he’s right or wrong.

well, see, i think the actual forensics of this case matter.i guess if you're not invested in the truth that's not really something you're worried about. does make you look fuckin pig ignorant to say both "im not watching the video" and also "all the claims in the video are false" though.

as far as your assertion that he is an idiot; that which is asserted without evidence or argument may be safely dismissed without evidence or argument. seeing as how you argue from mere denial while tacitly admitting not to have reviewed the evidence or their argument, you reveal yourself to be that which you accuse others of. you reveal yourself to be a hypocrite who didn't read the op and is projecting the inadequacies of their own position onto those with whom you disagree.

now fuck off mortuary assistant, and don't come back until you've gone to work and looked up entry and exit gunshot wounds in a professional reference and compared them to the video that you actually watched.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

... though I find your username ridiculous, lol, I very much appreciate that you as well are trying to approach this rationally, as you say, as a forensic analysis of a crime scene.

the reason i feel compelled to at least attempt my own analysis is that... well, a conspiracy theorist podcaster is currently in charge of the FBI, has purged many of its most experienced investigators and leadership... and certainly seems to be stonewalling everything to do with Epstein, if not outright destroying or manipulating evidence.

[–] BussyGyatt@feddit.org 2 points 1 day ago

that does seem to be about the long and short of it, yes.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Can you explain to me why you think this way?

Did you even watch the video, or are just quoting my summary of what he says in the video?

... Do you have an extensive catalogue of experience with dofferent exit and entry wounds of different calibers?

Because you absolutely can find general wound size imagery, as he shows, in many guides to, and studies on terminal ballistics and how the human body behaves, reacts to different kinds of calibers.

[–] prosecute_traitors@lemmy.zip 1 points 3 days ago (1 children)

So... The current suspect is too republican for you?

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

... No?

I am trying to match up, analyze, make sense of, the details related to the ballistics of the event, the firearms involved, the wounds, etc.

I do not even want to touch anything like a psych profile or potential motive.

I am trying to figure out the physical mechanics of how the assassination happened.

I figure that maybe the largest gun community on lemmy, at least that I see, may have some kind of gun related knowledge to contribute, or use to make their own assessments.

EDIT:

Further, given that the link I provided is from a guy, who endorses other Republicans as an aside to a detail of his ballistic analysis...

He is likely a Republican or otherwise on the right, and he is proposing that the current story the Republicans are running with... is bullshit, is wrong.

[–] prosecute_traitors@lemmy.zip 1 points 3 days ago (2 children)

yeah no shit a republican would like the shooter to have another political affiliation. the shooter was a groyper, learn to live with that fact.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

It is probably worth mentioning, at this point... that the latest release of text exchanges from the suspected (and now formally charged) shooter... and interviews with his friends...

... seem to indicate that he was mostly a-political, or maybe you'd say he had a complex/confused/ambiguous political identity, that he was basically just making video game references... that he was yet another American white kid from a highly religious, Republican family whom his family thought they knew well, but it turns they didn't, that he is a more complex person with some views that they would never tolerate, so he lived a more or less double life on his computer instead.

Now, that may or may not be innacurate, that may or may not be subject to change if more evidence is released...

But this kid's friends, from the discord chats, and interviews with Ken Klippensteim, have described Tyler Robinson as basically a-political, that he really did not overtly talk about politics much with them, and this seems to be backed up by there being almost no mention of political figures in their chat log histories.

Regardless: I am trying to have a discussion about ballistics, wound profiles, forensics.

Again, not a pysch eval, not a motive analysis, etc.

EDIT

Well, update to this, for what its worth...

Major figures in the US right wing are now saying these text messages the FBI has released... are doctored, faked, something like that.

Steve Bannon and Candace Owens and many others on Twitter, again, on the right, ... don't buy that the messages are legit.

Mainly inasmuch as the language is wildly unrealistic for a text message exhange, and also basically perfectly gives a prosecutor literally everything they would need to nail a conviction in a rather brief exchange.

I ... think Ken Klippenstein's interviews with Tyler's friends are probably still legit, but uh... yeah yeah, this is why I wanted to try to just stick to ballistics here, not motive, not psych profile... this whole thing is a fucking mess and stinks, MAGA is going to war with itself... pure fucking chaos.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

I have no idea why you think I am a Republican.

I am not.

I am a left wing anarchist.

Go read my comment history if you doubt this, maybe sort by 'top'.

You very clearly are not interested in attempting to objectively analyze the actual scenario of the shooting.

You are interested in doing partisan reasoning, blame assignment.

I am again interested in the opinions of people who may actually have real experience with firearms, you know, relative subject matter experts... to attempt to analyze the plausibility of the assasination scenario that is being pushed, is being popularized.

Having some practical familiarity with firearms is not totally exclusive to those on the right.

If you only have opinions about firearms, and no practical experience with them, and you simply wish to discuss the potential motives or political alignment of the current primary suspect: please go away.

[–] prosecute_traitors@lemmy.zip 0 points 2 days ago (1 children)

this is just a blatant attempt at seeding doubt about what is clearly caught on film. in hd. like it is literally a 4chan conspiracy. you are talking like this is a scientific post and you ask for pier review. it is fucking ridiculous if you are honest in your inquiry.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Do you have an actual specific criticism?

Grounded in ballistics?

Or just the notion that other team than you thinks this way therefore it is wrong and bad?

How does your intepretation of the footage ... which has apparently led you to conclude the shot came from Kirk's front... differ from this guy's interpretation of the footage, which to him indicates the shot came from Kirk's right?

Also, its 'peer' review, we are not talking about shipping or boating.

[–] prosecute_traitors@lemmy.zip 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

sry firend, i only speak english, german, french and a bit of russian. so excuse the odd mistake in my writing. who is the "guy" in the video? why should his opinion count? because he said he was/is a scout sniper? you stated yourself you could not vet those claims, so why the fuck would you propagate them? you are just furthering alt right conspiracies and cannot cope with being called out for it.

[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com -1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

... What I was trying to say is that he claims to be a Scout Sniper from the United States Marine Corps.

What I mean by saying I cannot 100% prove this is that I do not personally know him, I do not have a copy of his discharge or leave papers that would definitely prove that he is or was a member of the military.

On the other side of that:

He talks and acts and looks exactly like an actual military sniper would, and, if you go look at another comment I made, he knows things about ballistics that most laypeople do not know.

I do not know who this guy is.

I randomly found, on youtube, what appears to me to be a well thought out and reasonable ballistic analysis.

Myself, I grew up conservative, in the US, around guns, but I myself later became leftist when I realized the hypocrisy of the conservative world view.

I am thus familiar enough with shooting weapons, using them, their mechanics, as well as first aid training in how to at least immediately deal with the effects of gunshots, and I have been around enough other range shooters and hunters and such that I think I can reasonably discern that:

Yeah, this guy probably is an actual sniper, he acts very similarly to many other actual military snipers I have met at shooting ranges.

[–] prosecute_traitors@lemmy.zip -2 points 2 days ago

yeah brother you are beyond saving so i wont bother any longer.