[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 3 points 1 year ago

Primary myoblasts double on average every 4 days! So if given infinite nutrients, and you started with 1 gram of meat, it would take .... 369 days to equal the mass of earth!

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 7 points 1 year ago

Doesn't the futurism/hopium idea of building an ideal city go back to Disney? Who does more or less have feudal stronghold rights over florida?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPCOT_(concept)

Because of these two modes of transportation, residents of EPCOT would not need cars. If a resident owned a car, it would be used "only for weekend pleasure trips."[citation needed] The streets for cars would be kept separate from the main pedestrian areas. The main roads for both cars and supply trucks would travel underneath the city core, eliminating the risk of pedestrian accidents. This was also based on the concept that Walt Disney devised for Disneyland. He did not want his guests to see behind-the-scenes activity, such as supply trucks delivering goods to the city. Like the Magic Kingdom in Walt Disney World, all supplies are discreetly delivered via tunnels.

Or The Line in Saudi Arabia.

Definely Sneer-worthy, though it's sometimes worked. Napoleon redesigned Paris, which is probably a good thing. But they are stuck with that design to this day, which is probably bad.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems -1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I wanted to know what you know and I don't. If rationalists are all scammers and not genuinely trying to be, per the name 'lesswrong' in their view of reality, what's your model of reality. What do you know? So far unfortunately I haven't seen anything. Sneer club's "reality model" seems to be "whatever the mainstream average person knows + 1 physicist", and it exists to make fun of the mistakes of rationalists and I assume ignores any successes if there are any.

Which is fine, I guess? Mainstream knowledge is probably usually correct. It's just that I already know it, there's nothing to be learned here.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 1 points 1 year ago

Real talk: a real doll with the brain of a calculator would be a substantial product improvement.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 0 points 1 year ago

Sure, but they were 4 function calculators a few months ago. The rate of progress seems insane.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 0 points 1 year ago

My experience in research indicates to me that figuring shit out is hard and time consuming, and “intelligence” whatever that is has a lot less to do with it than having enough resources and luck. I’m not sure why some super smart digital mind would be able to do science much faster than humans.

That's right. Eliezer's LSD vision of the future where a smart enough AI just figures it all out with no new data is false.

However, you could...build a fuckton of robots. Have those robots do experiments for you. You decide on the experiments, probably using a procedural formula. For example you might try a million variations of wing design, or a million molecules that bind to a target protein, and so on. Humans already do this actually in those domains, this is just extending it.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 0 points 1 year ago

I keep seeing this idea that all GPT needs to be true AI is more permanence and (this is wild to me) a robotic body with which to interact with the world. if that’s it, why not try it out? you’ve got a selection of vector databases that’d work for permanence, and a big variety of cheap robotics kits that speak g-code, which is such a simple language I’m very certain GPT can handle it. what happens when you try this experiment?

??? I don't believe GPT-n is ready for direct robotics control at a human level because it was never trained on it, and you need to use a modification on transformers for the architecture, see https://www.deepmind.com/blog/rt-2-new-model-translates-vision-and-language-into-action . And a bunch of people have tried your experiment with some results https://github.com/GT-RIPL/Awesome-LLM-Robotics .

In addition to tinker with LLMs you need to be GPU-rich, or have the funding of about 250-500m. My employer does but I'm a cog in the machine. https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-gemini-eats-the-world-gemini

What I think is the underlying technology that made GPT-4 possible can be made to drive robots to human level at some tasks, though if you note I think it may take to 2040 to be good, and that technology mostly just includes the idea of using lots of data, neural networks, and a mountain of GPUs.

Oh and RSI. That's the wildcard. This is where you automate AI research, including developing models that can drive a robot, using current AI as a seed. If that works, well. And yes there are papers where it does work. .

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I'm trying to find the twitter post where someone deepfakes eliezer's voice into saying full speed ahead on AI development, we need embodied catgirls pronto.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

academic AI researchers have passed him by.

Just to be pedantic, it wasn't academic AI researchers. The current era of AI began here : https://www.npr.org/2012/06/26/155792609/a-massive-google-network-learns-to-identify

Academic AI researchers have never had the compute hardware to contribute to AI research since 2012, except some who worked at corporate giants (mostly deepmind) and went back into academia.

They are getting more hardware now, but the hardware required to be relevant and to develop a capability that commercial models don't already have keeps increasing. Table stakes are now something like 10,000 H100s, or about 250-500 million in hardware.

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-gemini-eats-the-world-gemini

I am not sure MIRI tried any meaningful computational experiments. They came up with unrunnable algorithms that theoretically might work but would need nearly infinite compute.

[-] BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Hi David. Reason I dropped by was the whole concept of knowing the distant future with too much certainty seemed like a deep flaw, and I have noticed lesswrong itself is full of nothing but 'cultist' AI doomers. Everyone kinda parrots a narrow range of conclusions, mainly on the imminent AGI killing everyone, and this, ironically, doesn't seem very rational...

I actually work on the architecture for current production AI systems and whenever I mention approaches that do work fine and suggest we could control more powerful AI this way, I get downvoted. So I was trying to differentiate between:

A. This is a club of smart people, even smarter than lesswrongers who can't see the flaws!

B. This is a club of well, the reason I called it boomers was I felt that the current news and AI papers make each of the questions I asked a reasonable and conservative outcome. For example posters here are saying for (1), "no it won't do 25% of the jobs". That was not the question, it was 25% of the tasks. Since for example Copilot already writes about 25% of my code, and GPT-4 helps me with emails to my boss, from my perspective this is reasonable. The rest of the questions build on (1).

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submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by BrickedKeyboard@awful.systems to c/sneerclub@awful.systems

First, let me say that what broke me from the herd at lesswrong was specifically the calls for AI pauses. That somehow 'rationalists' are so certain advanced AI will kill everyone in the future (pDoom = 100%!) that they need to commit any violent act needed to stop AI from being developed.

The flaw here is that there's 8 billion people alive right now, and we don't actually know what the future is. There are ways better AI could help the people living now, possibly saving their lives, and essentially eliezer yudkowsky is saying "fuck em". This could only be worth it if you actually somehow knew trillions of people were going to exist, had a low future discount rate, and so on. This seems deeply flawed, and seems to be one of the points here.

But I do think advanced AI is possible. And while it may not be a mainstream take yet, it seems like the problems current AI can't solve, like robotics, continuous learning, module reuse - the things needed to reach a general level of capabilities and for AI to do many but not all human jobs - are near future. I can link deepmind papers with all of these, published in 2022 or 2023.

And if AI can be general and control robots, and since making robots is a task human technicians and other workers can do, this does mean a form of Singularity is possible. Maybe not the breathless utopia by Ray Kurzweil but a fuckton of robots.

So I was wondering what the people here generally think. There are "boomer" forums I know of where they also generally deny AI is possible anytime soon, claim GPT-n is a stochastic parrot, and make fun of tech bros as being hypesters who collect 300k to edit javascript and drive Teslas*.

I also have noticed that the whole rationalist schtick of "what is your probability" seems like asking for "joint probabilities", aka smoke a joint and give a probability.

Here's my questions:

  1. Before 2030, do you consider it more likely than not that current AI techniques will scale to human level in at least 25% of the domains that humans can do, to average human level.

  2. Do you consider it likely, before 2040, those domains will include robotics

  3. If AI systems can control robotics, do you believe a form of Singularity will happen. This means hard exponential growth of the number of robots, scaling past all industry on earth today by at least 1 order of magnitude, and off planet mining soon to follow. It does not necessarily mean anything else.

  4. Do you think that mass transition where most human jobs we have now will become replaced by AI systems before 2040 will happen

  5. Is AI system design an issue. I hate to say "alignment", because I think that's hopeless wankery by non software engineers, but given these will be robotic controlling advanced decision-making systems, will it require lots of methodical engineering by skilled engineers, with serious negative consequences when the work is sloppy?

*"epistemic status": I uh do work for a tech company, my job title is machine learning engineer, my girlfriend is much younger than me and sometimes fucks other dudes, and we have 2 Teslas..

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BrickedKeyboard

joined 1 year ago