Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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There are lots of reasons to think Chinese AI will come to dominate globally, and the Chinese government's latest directives on AI seem to make that more likely.

First, there's no mention of AGI or superintelligence. The only other nation's AI likely to dominate is the US's. China's approach to AI is profoundly different. Where the US AI leaders are focused on reaching AGI first, the Chinese are focused on the widespread integration of today's AI across all levels of society and their economy.

That means China can't help but export its AI standards. They are the world's manufacturing hub. This AI approach will be built into all their exports and thus spread around the world. EVs, robots, electronics, renewable energy infrastructure, etc, etc - all will have Chinese AI.

The Chinese make most of their AI open-source and free. They are more focused on the money they can make on top of that. Google with the Android OS is a good analogy. This will encourage global dispersal, too.

Finally, the Chinese have the advantage of having detailed plans and the ability to stick to them and implement them. Many Westerners favor as close as they can get to complete deregulation and the absence of any plans. The disadvantage of that approach in the 21st century, is that the Chinese and their planned joined-up thinking tend to leave you behind in the dust, while they get ahead and get things done.

The AI Plus initiative – China’s blueprint for AI diffusion

 

Data centers aren't the sole cause of Ireland's high electricity prices, but they do contribute to them. The biggest cause is Ireland's reliance on imported natural gas.

That said, data centers are heading for 30% of the country's electricity use, and they contribute significantly to high prices. Effectively a subsidy from Irish consumers to Big Tech. There are other externalized costs, too. E.g. Supporting Big Tech data center infrastructure is delaying house building. Ireland is lucky in that most of Big Tech pays its European taxes to the Irish government, so there's a quid pro quo here. But that is less true for other parts of the world.

Some people think AI may need as big a share of other countries' electricity - who should be paying for this?

Government warned of rising household bills as data centres strain grid

 

Full details, including a 27 page PDF are at this link

 

The study tested whether genetically engineered senescence-resistant mesenchymal progenitor cells (SRCs) could slow or reverse aging in primates. By enhancing the activity of the longevity-associated gene FOXO3, the researchers created stem cells more resilient to stress and senescence.

This reversed ageing across a broad series of markers, including the brain, skin, bones, internal organs, and reproductive system.

The study used cynomolgus macaques aged 19–23 years, which they said is equivalent to 57–69 years in humans. I don't know if you can directly scale up the improvements to "human years", but if you could, it seems this would be the same as reversing human aging by about a decade for people in their 50s and 60s.

Senescence-resistant human mesenchymal progenitor cells counter aging in primates

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 6 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Caveat - China Daily is owned and operated by the Chinese government/CCP. But the article is interesting in itself, and its official endorsement is interesting, too.

 

People used to hold up China as the prime example of Orwellian government monitoring of the citizenry. Now it looks like the US is giving them a run for their money. This spyware is for immigration officials, but how long before its use spreads? Tied to AI, it will be a powerful way to identify and monitor "enemies" of the government.

This software takes control of your phone, meaning its users can act as you. Don't like all those social media posts you made criticising XYZ. Fine, we'll delete them for you. If you think the government wouldn't go that far, I've a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

We used to speculate about a 100% surveillance future. It looks like it has arrived, and we're living in it.

Ice obtains access to Israeli-made spyware that can hack phones and encrypted apps

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 9 points 1 week ago (3 children)

I'm still surprised at the rate LLMs make simple mistakes. I was recently using ChatGPT to research biographical details about James Joyce's life, and it gave me several basic facts (places he lived & was educated at) at variance with what is clearly stated in the Wikipedia article about him.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 1 points 1 week ago

I wonder will the US & EU bifurcate on AI adoption for government and administration, with the EU opting for open-source?

US models don't seem interested in complying with EU law like the AI Act or GDPR.

If so, 5 or 10 years down the line this could lead to very fundamental differences in how the two territories are governed. There may all sorts of unexpected effects arising from this.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 5 points 2 weeks ago

The person making this claim, Miles Brundage, has a distinguished background in AI policy research, including being head of Policy Research at OpenAI from 2018 to 24. Which is all the more reason to ask skeptical questions about claims like this.

What economists agree with this claim? (Where are citations/sources to back this claim?)

How will it come about politically? (Some countries are so polarised, they seem they'd prefer a civil war to anything as left-wing as UBI).

What would inflation be like if everyone had $10K UBI? (Would eggs be $1,000 a dozen?)

All the same, I'm glad he's at least brave enough to seriously face what most won't. It's just such a shame, as economists won't face this, we're left to deal with source-light discussion that doesn't rise much above anecdotes and opinions.

Former OpenAI researcher says a $10,000 monthly UBI will be 'feasible' with AI-enabled growth

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 16 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

its eligibility criteria to those with Italian parents or grandparents.

That's the existing criteria for Irish passports. I'd guess the number of Americans with one grandparent born in Ireland or Italy must run to 10s of millions.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 5 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

In terms of advancing software, its extremely inefficient,

It amazes me how their BS on 'innovation' has infected broader culture and politics.

Look how little fundamental innovation there is in health, education and housing. All getting more expensive and out of reach.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 4 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)

Their hope seems to be to invent something proprietary and hypey that gets them bought up, not to actually build something functional.

They all seem to be chasing the dream of being unicorns (for the unintiated reading this, monopolist giants like Google/Meta, not magical horses).

Do American VCs even bother with start-ups who want to be small/medium sized firms, and have a solid case for making a few hundred million dollars every year?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 3 points 3 weeks ago

Yes I did, and corrected it.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 6 points 4 weeks ago

Oddly, 2024 new industrial robot numbers dropped for each of the EU, Japan and the US, too from the year before. Robot manufacturing means cheaper goods, and the EU, Japan & the US are already feeling the crunch. They don't seem to have any answer to the flood of good quality cheap electric vehicles that have made China the world's biggest car maker. These pressures are only going to get worse and worse.

2024 New Industrial Robots

290,000 - China

86,000 - EU

43,000 - Japan

34,000 - US

Chinese factories keep up robot roll-out despite global decline

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 20 points 1 month ago (3 children)

I'm glad this helps people with paralysis, but I can't help seeing the sci-fi dystopian side of tech like this.

What if some people are forced to have their inner thoughts decoded against their will? It sounds like just the thing some authoritarian thought police would use to root out their enemies.

Does that sound far-fetched? I'm sure if it were suggested as an upgrade to existing lie-detecting polygraph tests, lots of people would approve. Slippery slope.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

If you think of it as a pet alternative, its not so expensive. Food & vets bills for cats & dogs can easily be $1000 per year.

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