I'm just trying to guess how much time has Ukraine before being absorbed by authoritarian Russia.
OK, a bit melodramatic, but if Russia keeps advancing, even if it's meters per day, even if it takes them 10 years to reach Kyiv, they are still advancing and Putin can throw as many bodies as he wants, a luxury Ukraine does not have. It pays being a larger country, both in terms of demographics and surface.
Now that it's clear that neither trump nor vance like Zelenskyy and want his head to divide the country and stir things up to find somebody more amenable to sell out the country to both the US and Russia, it's up to Canada, UK, the EU and hopefully Australia, South Korea and Turkey to help Ukraine navigate the next 4 years. What I want to know is what military capabilities these countries can spare to help Ukraine.
I'd also like some kind of probabilities scale: for example, it is plain stupid to suggest Greece and Turkey have so many tanks they could lend some to Ukraine. This ignores political realities between both countries, as they hate each other and were accepted simultaneously into NATO so they wouldn't veto or kill each other.
Also, do you know if any reputable source has a timetable the EU would need to substitute America's capabilities? Not even to match America's 2.8K American nuclear warheads and nuclear carrying missiles, their 6 fleets, 11 carriers..., but to simply defend the EU's territory win a conflict with Russia with no American involvement and no territorial loss and eventually defend Ukraine and help them reclaim their lost territories.
Just 2 days ago I though talking about NATO being dead was being melodramatic but now I really believe in 6 months this organization won't exist anymore. Europe has to go back to cold war levels of military spending.
I'm not trying to diminish the quality or importance of the French military, the only EU country with an independent industrial military complex, but as of 2025 USAF has 385 operative F-35 and another 1,350 on order. Many NATO allies are procuring this fighter. This is a 5th generation fighter, the Dassault Rafale and the Dassault Mirage 2000 are 4th generation. Currently, no 5th generation fighters are being produced in the EU.
Unpopular opinion, but the Americans have better quality airframes and produce more. On a wide EU-Russia conflict the EU would still depend on US made weaponry. Sad but true.
Which should be a reason good enough to create an EU wide military industrial complex and make your own 5th and 6th generation fighters and your own defense systems.
But the EU is eternally disunited.