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What actually happened.
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this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2024
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I really hope we in the West wouldn't just fold the moment "ABBEXA childrens plastic bucket fun water toy for family" gets cut off, but the thing about civilian manufacturing is that it can be converted to military manufacturing. One moment it's making buckets, the next it's making covers for mines. And, the sector isn't even bad quality anymore; it's not as good as CNC nerds in Germany, but their stuff will work at a basic level and arrive on schedule. Meanwhile, the need to supply Ukraine has exposed that our own manufacturing, while advanced and awesome, doesn't scale very easily.
It's all a bit academic because of MAD, but the main reason I think we'd have a shot in a conventional war is that the professionals seem to think we'd have a shot.