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this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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Harris has to win 3 states, PA, MI, and WI. Losing any one of those three throws it to Trump.
It is going to be a nail biter!
Unless she win NC or OH. She's doing really well in both.
I think this is going to be a giant blowout win for Kamala. But, please, no one get cocky! Everyone has to actually vote!
I don't see NC, OH, AZ, NV, or GA going to Harris. It's wishful thinking, but I wouldn't count on any of them.
That’s what I’m saying, I think MI will go to Harris, but if she loses PA, Trump just needs NV & AZ and he’s going back to the White House.
While if Harris loses PA, she HAS to win GA, there’s no path to victory for her without GA in this scenario.
MI will be complicated because of the Muslim vote and Gaza.
Which is just bizarre, because Trump has shown he is much more willing to suck up to whatever Netanyahu wants than Biden or Harris.
It doesn't matter to trump voters what he shows, they only believe what he says, not what he does.
I don’t think that’ll matter, Trump BARELY won MI in 2016 by less than 10k votes, and that was with Russian Psyop Jill Stein stealing votes from Hillary there.
In 2020, Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country and Biden won it by 150k votes.
I don’t see how Trump can flip that state back, those are insane margins.
Clinton in Michigan was just stupid, she thought it was in the bag and failed to campaign there. That hurt her more than Stein did.
But the youth vote is fickle, they turned against Biden there this year, he was never going to win MI which is one of the reasons he dropped out.
Regardless of turnout, I just don’t see a 150k margin being overcome in just 4 years. Harris would have to lose an insane amount of voters and Trump would have to gain a lot of voters all within 4 years. I just don’t see him winning that state.
All it takes is for the Muslim vote to stay home.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/04/politics/muslim-americans-biden-michigan/index.html
"Michigan has more than 200,000 Muslim American voters — 146,000 of whom turned out to vote in 2020 –— according to an analysis by Emgage, an organization that seeks to build the political power of Muslim Americans. Biden won Michigan — a state that narrowly went to Donald Trump in 2016 — by 155,000 votes."
But how many of them actually voted for Biden?
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians
"AP reported that 64% of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in 2020, while 35% supported Trump. And in heavily Arab American counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little less than 70%."
So 154,000 voted, 70% for Biden. 107,800 or so.