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Climate scientists flummoxed by unexpected bump in global temperatures
(www.motherjones.com)
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this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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Maybe it's because climate scientists have been underestimating effects for decades so they didn't lose grants for looking alarmist.
Have they?
"In this case, their very specific prediction was that warming of between 1.5°C and 4.5°C would accompany a doubling of atmospheric CO₂" https://theconversation.com/40-years-ago-scientists-predicted-climate-change-and-hey-they-were-right-120502
Isn't the problem more that people have been reading that and assuming that it means 3°, not 'possibly 4.5°' ?
That said, the study there seems to assume that the effects are roughly linear, ie. that there are no tipping points.
I don't want to go into specific predictions because there are too many. But generally, scientists are very conservative with their predictions, because they don't want to lose grants. It's safe to hide behind numbers and give low estimates.
I hear what you're saying, but I think the real problem is the policy makers, who are without doubt choosing to use the least scary predictions, and pushing even those targets back when they fail to achieve them.