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this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2024
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On one hand, my knee jerk reaction is to say debates don't really matter.
On the other hand, Biden literally dropped out over the last one.
Anyone with sense was saying Biden needed to step down before the debate. It was plain as day to everyone except the Democratic strategists, and, well, Lemmy.
I wasn’t in favour of him stepping down. And all the polls at the time showed Harris as being less popular so it just didn’t make sense.
After that debate I was still not really in favour of him stepping down from a pure just looking at the numbers stance that I’m sure still showed him as being more popular than her.
However when he called Zelensky, Putin, I knew the game was up. It was clear that he literally couldn’t function even when he wasn’t in a pressurised debate.
I don’t think it was obvious that there was a chance that Harris was going to be more popular than him until before that point really. Even then you couldn’t say for sure.
But it was obvious he just wasn’t going to make it to the election. You can’t mix up Zelensky and Putin and just carry on after that. I really think that was a much lower low than the debate.
The Democrats fucked up by not replacing Biden from the beginning, that was the time when it made sense to get rid of him. I was fully in favour of it at that point.
To change your candidate THIS close to the election of course seemed like an insane idea. The choice just got taken away in the end and he just had to go.
Thankfully it’s worked out really well but it’s easy to say that we should have changed him straight after or before that debate. The choice was not as obvious as you are making it out to be beforehand. Because the dem voters weren’t obsessed with Biden like the reps are obsessed with Trump. Everyone wanted whoever would be the best candidate to beat Trump. Literally no one gave a shit whether it was Biden or not, he just looked like the best choice until very late on.
We should've held a goddamn primary. If the Democrats were so convinced that the incumbency effect was worth skipping on a primary, they should've put it to the test and asked the American voters if they thought Biden was still the best guy for the job. Not a choice between Biden and Trump, but a choice between Biden and a number of other qualified candidates.
If we're being honest, pre-debate I would have still chosen Biden. I still think he's capable of doing the job of President despite the poor showing, because I know that's not Biden 100% of the time, that's him 1% of the time when not on top of his game.
Couldn't be happier with the Harris replacement, though. It brought the energy we were sorely lacking. I'm just crossing my fingers and praying that people show up in November. Please, god, don't let that fucking crook back in.
I think Biden would have still won. Incumbency and name recognition is huge advantage among people who bother to vote in primaries.
It would basically be Biden on one side with several candidates splitting the anti-Biden vote.
now to be clear, we didn't quite lose the incumbency advantage, given that kamala is a VP currently, so there's actually a much less significant cost here in this case.