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this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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Ironically security theater can have a a placebo effect on crime rates as well. It turns out that the likelihood that someone commits a crime is strongly correlated to the chance they believe they will get caught, not the actual chance of getting caught. That’s why fake security cameras are so effective.
This only applies to rational actors. The problem is most criminals are not rational nor thinking of consequences.
Case in point, criminals know convenience stores have cameras but still openly rob and steal from them.
Hate to say it (re: security theater), but I think that is correct. I've read articles stating a drop in crime in places where they just have a cardboard cutout of police officers in the window.
It could also just have been a hot August, leading people to feel lethargic and steal less than they did earlier in the year? (How reliable do we think this data actually is btw?)
"It is not the severity of punishment that deters crime, but the certainty of punishment."
Bullocks. You could make the crime for stealing death and execute everyone who does. There would still be stealing.
Simply put most criminals don't think about consequences.
I think you may have misread their comment.
Not at all. There is a wealth of research about this topic.
Ensuring severity and certainty of punishment will not stop crime. It may affect some rational actors decisions but most criminals are not rational.
It make sense, when you make a decision you make it based on the data you have not the truth. So security theaters are effective as long as people who are thinking about commiting a crime think it is working. And they care about getting caught.
Like the ADT signs people get off of Craigslist.
NRA stickers are probably way more effective.