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this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2023
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About the rare huge-moon part - there's been a recent discovery of a pair of young, still-forming exoplanets sharing the same orbit in a young star system - "PDS 70"; one protoplanet is in the L4 or L5 "Trojan" LaGrange point of the bigger one. Physicists reckon Theia may well have formed in one of Earth's Trojan points, before being perturbed out onto a collision course by a third planet (thanks Jupiter)
So. While the planetary-collision-forming-a-huge-moon idea sure sounds wild, it might not be incredibly rare. Maybe.
We're still at the very early stage of knowing what is normal for solar systems.
Neat! Plug that into the Drake equation. Problem is everything in there is pretty much guesswork and estimates of the number of intelligent lifeforms capable of interstellar communication in our galaxy vary between 1 and like, 100 million.
I think that if it happened once it's bound to have happened many times but then where's the party at? Hopefully we are just early, maybe we can still be the host at least.