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this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2024
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Israel and Iran going for a real war, would make the currently bad situation even worse. However it does come with the advantage that both countries might get rid of their shitty leaders.
I don't think that's true. Because Biden won't be able to resist. We'll have US troops on the ground and he'll still be saying Hamas is blocking the peace process.
For who? It'll create more bad situations, but the currently bad situation in Palestine will get better, if anything. I know everyone is afraid of an all out war in the Middle East but in the long term it's one possible way to collapse the status quo and make way for a more sustainable future for the region. War is bad, but it's not worse than a warmonger getting to steamroll everyone else and Israel needs to regain the fear of God (and their neighbors) before there's ever a chance for peace. Egypt and Syria proved it in opposite directions in 1973.
Edit: A weaker Iran would also help countries like Lebanon and Iran gain some real independence (and turn the tide against Assad); they're definitely not sinless here.
There are anti war protests in Israel against Netanyahu since Hamas attack on the October 7th. As soon as the fighting ends an new election will be called and Netanyahu is probably going to loose that one. That would mean a more moderate government for Israel and the chance for a deal with the PLO. However a war with Iran delays this and we know what is going on in Palestine right now.
A weaker Iran might help, but the way of getting rid of Iran as a problem is a revolution within Iran. I doubt a war against Israel would help with that.
Yes, but not for the reasons you think. The overwhelming majority of Israelis have absolutely no issue with the violence being inflicted upon Palestinians (I can link a source). The right wing keeps growing in Israel, and was even before the war. The protests are happening because even as a genocidal fascist Netanyahu is failing in the Israeli goal of destroying Hamas's ability to wage war (surprise surprise) and bringing the hostages home (more surprise). The government that comes after this won't have Likud, but it'll still be a far right one. Settlements will keep getting built, we'll still have people like "I consider my life's mission to be preventing the creation of a Palestinian state" Smotrich, Gazans will still be forced to live in an open air concentration camp, etc etc. A deal with the PLO is fucking impossible, both because Israel won't get a more moderate government and because the PLO is dead. Mahmoud Abbas is a corrupt Israeli puppet and everyone knows it; even Biden admits the PLO will need to be reformed before they can be trusted to run anything.
TL;DR: Even after the next election, don't expect any good faith peace action from Israel. It won't happen; we've seen this movie before.
I mean if they're weakened by the war they won't be able to give as much Hezbollah and Syria weapons. That has to count for something.
Are they able to delay elections based on the status of their military engagements? That’s seems like a big problem with their democracy…
No elections are scheduled to be held in October 2026, but the coaltion is very likely going to break as soon as the war ends.
Exactly, can’t have and lose a new election if the warring never ends.