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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 55 points 1 month ago

So a couple of things...

  1. As usual, national polls are useless. Numbers after the jump.

  2. "pollster Frank Luntz said."

  • Obligatory "Fuck you, Frank!"

For those who don't get that reference, it's from Penn and Teller's "Bullshit!" episode on polling:

https://youtu.be/7nGv_xmT7mY

https://youtu.be/0s5Q1e8EBwA

Now... ALLLLL that being said... Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.

AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Plotted on the map:

As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that's it, she doesn't need anything else.

Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.

For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.

Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.

Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)

[-] Hylactor@sopuli.xyz 10 points 1 month ago

Can someone further compress this down so my illiterate ass can parse it more easily?

[-] reddwarf@feddit.nl 24 points 1 month ago

Kamala needs 1 state
Trump needs multiple states

All kidding aside, OP did a great job compressing it all in the last 2 paragraphs.

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this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2024
108 points (93.5% liked)

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