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this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
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politics
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There are a lot of reasons to think that it might go the other way this year. In 2016, we had a combination of overconfidence, lack of real enthusiasm, and a general sense of not giving a shit that allowed democrats, who outnumbered Trump supporters, to throw the election. In 2020, polling was completely fucked up by Covid. Democrats had higher margins in pre-election polling but less on Election Day mostly due to the fact that democrats were more cautious about the pandemic, and those who forgot to sign up for mail in voting decided to stay home for safety, and the on the ground get out the vote measures didn’t happen at all on the blue side. This year neither are true, and we saw in polls in 2022 underestimate democrats. Pollsters may have overcorrected for the quiet Trump voters while not accounting for the turnout caused by the scrapping of roe. If you want an example of over correction to account for republicans in polls, look at the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. I feel like polls are underestimating democrats this time around.