This is part of the plan, to induce doubt. "We couldn't possibly have lost a fair election! We were ahead!"

Hopefully.

He makes a pretty convincing case for both the idea that "momentum" is kind of meaningless, but also that Trump slowly gaining for the last 30 days is not. Part of what pushed it over the line (Silver is quick to point out that 49.8 and 50.2 is basically meaningless like the difference between a 49th and 50th birthday; we like round numbers) is the Fox News poll.

As he demonstrates, there is no detectable right-wing bias in Fox News polling despite the obvious bias of their news reporting. I can't speak to the others, but I'm not ready to dismiss all polls based on the political identification of the organization, if the polling is of high quality.

My gut tells me Trump is going to pull this out somehow. But, then again, my gut literally has shit for brains.

Amazing. Thank you for your hard work!

a few things.

Nate Silver is not fivethiryeight. Silver Bullets is a totally different thing. Nate departed fivethiryeight over contract issues years ago. Since then their models have gone off the rails.

Second, you are fooling yourself if you ignore the reality that Harris has lost all momentum and is backsliding. It's in all the polling data, and when Nate references high quality polls, none of them vary significantly from the aggregate. Even Quinipiac shows her on her heals.

Third, almost none of those polls (that you mentioned) are used in Nates analysis. I think Fox and Trafalgar and TIPP, but that's it.

So like, conflating 538 with Nate Silver is an issue. I mean 538 had Biden at 60% to win when he was polling at 38%. Don't get rely on 538 for anything. Also, there is no significant differences between the so called RW pollsters and everyone else among high quality polls. I can drop that analysis for for you.

Reality is that Harris bungled the campaign thinking she could claim the center and this would motivate voters. America is divided as ever and no one is changing sides. Harris isn't in a race against Trump and she never has been. She's always been racing against apathy and the couch, and her rightward shift during and after the convention are what people will see in hindsight as obvious mistakes.

There are still two weeks left. But she blew off Muslim and ME voters early on. And now she's struggling with black and brown voters who are the apartheid that Palestinians live under as commiserate with their lives experience. I just don't see how she wins with effectively a prozionist foreign policy in today's political atmosphere. And it may only be 3-5% of typically democratic voters who are moved in that issue, but that's more than enough to lose this election, and it's been a clear signal in the data since the first or second week of September.

If Harris doesn't distance her self from the foreign policy disaster which has been the administrations support for Israel, I don't see her pulling this one out.