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this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2024
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Sadly, yes.
I'm really hoping "It's a close race..." is code for "Harris is favored to win, but we rigged the polls to show them neck and neck so that there's still a news cycle."
I'm worried cause I see the Democrats doing the "smart" thing of finding the exact counties they need to win. And aggressively pushing and trying to play to them alone.
And that doesn't seem like a smart strategy. In fact it feels like Hillary or Disney's failings where playing it safe and doing "smart" math doesn't work to do something productive and barely scrapes them by.
I don't see this being a landslide. And I'm worried their math will mean nothing in the real world.
I love how "playing it too safe" means "That wasn't safe at all"
It's kinda like how prevent defense in football sometimes (or perhaps even often) prevents teams from winning.
Playing aggressive versus conservative is how you shepherd limited resources.
Do you stretch for extra seats in the House/Senate by spreading your money/people thin? Or do you concentrate your effort in highly contested battlegrounds to boost your odds locally, while sacrificing possibly winnable races elsewhere?
There's arguments for all sorts of strategies, but a lot of it comes down to where the gettable extra votes are. Some races come down to strategy. Otherwise simply aren't changeable at that stage of the fight.
there is a 100% chance of Harris winning the popular vote. Unfortunately billions of dollars spent on like 100,000 people in 7 states will be what decides the election and there's a 1% chance of a tie which will throw it to the house of reps for some reason.
The need to reform the electoral college and ban gerrymandering has never been greater
"The constitution is meant to be a living breathing document to be updated and amended as per the country's need, not some holy scripture that must be taken at its word." - The Founding Fathers
Conservatives: And I ignored that completely.
Yeah its less a "constitution" and more a "treasured dead artifact" these days, like the foreskin of some 11th century pope entombed in a glass jar in a catholic church.
Nothing so auspicious. It's more "we never actually have a clue, because our job is to sell ads not tell you useful information".
News media had Obama in a tight race when it was a blowout. They had Hilary in a blowout when it was a nail biter. They called Florida for Al Gore early on election night. They aren't honest or useful or knowledgeable in any way that makes them a valuable source of information.
Hopefully it's that and not "we rigged the polls to give some credibility to whatever bs Trump is planning".
Oh God!