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this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2024
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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I wish I could agree, but we're all AI fodder. AI companies will spend us and anyone who disagrees can get fucked because money. The ownership class is going to milk this for every damn cent until they get their returns, and if that means more murder-suicides in that pursuit, well then buckle up.
The "money" the AI companies have are basically just promises from backers. If they cannot deliver their promises (which boil down to basically knowledge industries replacing around 20% of their workforce with LLMs) then that imaginary money dries up. Remember, there are real bills in the form of power and cooling and hardware that have to be paid all the time just to keep running in place.
A lawsuit that convinces the public and investors that LLMs are a dead end will kill most LLM companies.
To engage in some shameless self-promo, it'll probably destroy the concept of AI - the bubble's made "AI" synonymous with "LLMs and slop generators" in the public eye, so if LLMs get declared a dead end, AI as a whole will probably be written off alongside it.
Yeah, this is the "emperor has no clothes" reality that I keep bringing up with my friends who are still invested in the bubble (emotionally if not financially). The genAI/LLM tech stack defies the entire decades-long cost curve and investment thesis for computer technology. Up through the smartphone era, you bought in because you could get more utility for lower cost. What's being pushed now is higher-cost for dubious utility gains; it's just that some vendors are eating losses to hide the costs. (And of course the externalities get swept under the rug.)