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Harris' Messaging problem
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2024
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I’m can only follow this logic so far though. The problem is they are better off, the economy is better, but how do you get people to see it, believe it?
The obvious example is inflation, not that President really has much control over it. We’ve gone through a wave of inflation, triggered by causes during the previous president’s term. It generally trended down during Biden’s term and is now close to what we’d normally expect.
many people see the accumulated inflation of four years during Biden term and are frustrated by how much more expensive everything is
another perspective is inflation was triggered in Trump’s term, it took four years to get under control, now people voted to do it all over again rather than stay the course that got it under control. Staying the course is boring
Analyzing the economy is a measure of how well the capitalist engine is running. Is the supply being met by demand (perpetually rising GDP)? Is everyone contributing to growth (low unemployment, growing market caps)? To focus on these points is capitalism, what the corporations want. This is necessarily paired with trickle-down economics to explain why you should give a shit about stocks you don't own going up.
You won't ever see measures of the economy focusing on people. Are the workers able to pay rent and bills and contribute to savings? Are workers going hungry? Does the minimum wage provide an acceptable minimum standard of living? Are wages keeping up with inflation? Are workers accumulating their own wealth? To focus on these points is populism, what the people want.
The economy is doing great! Corporations are posting record profits every quarter. But workers are getting fucked harder every year. People are mad because their life isn't easy and they can't afford a stable existence. When lots of people are unhappy, they want drastic action. 20k on a 500k house and a child care credit ain't it. Deporting 20,000,000 people and "draining the swamp" is drastic. It's objectively stupid, but at least it's action and people are thirsty for anything because what we're currently doing isn't working.
If anyone wants to win the next election, all they need is a populist platform. For Dems, that's progressivism and an infatuation with unions. It's us (the people) against them (the corporations). For Rs, it's a straightforward culture war. It's us (the true patriots) against them (the social outgroups).
Some of the most important measures of the economy are focussed on people. There’s a huge industry to measuring inflation as literally the costs that people bear, and yes there are various measures of income, typical families, job trends. How can anyone miss the concern over the last decade or so about the growth of low paying service jobs over better paying more specialized jobs?
“Draining the swamp” is surely one of the catchiest of many catchy slogans coined by Trump. We’re all frustrated about how much of our income disappears into government especially when we don’t understand where it goes. But the goal people think they’re voting for is entirely inconsistent with gutting agencies that help them, with the rampant cronyism, corruption, corporatism. Essentially every fact and four years of experience show the reality as entirely the opposite to the myth.
But yeah, I see the need for populism. Clinton had it, Obama had it, but so many Democrats can’t get across the finish line without it, regardless of intentions or capability. I had a lot of hope for Harris and Walz as campaigns built their popular images, but then it fizzled
The thing is they're not. Yes, inflation is down, but that doesn't mean that prices are going down. It means that the rate increase goes down. So if you were living paycheck to paycheck in 2019, you are doing objectively worse in 2024.
This isn't new either. Over the last 30 years, the middle class has collapsed, the cost of living has gone up, the bottom of the manufacturing industry has fallen out, and wages have remained stagnant. Sometimes when Democrats have power, things get marginally better, but it's more accurate to say that things get worse more slowly. Donald Trump promises radical change, and the Democrats don't. They can no longer survive on this impotent half-measures like subsidies for small business loans. They need something radical, like a New Deal, if they ever want to win again.
I understand simmering frustration, but yes: we had gradual change happening, but fell for the emotional outrage, the promise of radical change. And this is despite all evidence of how much is false or inconsistent, how much will be completely ignored, and above all else how much will make things worse for most of us. Potentially much worse
Yeah, to be absolutely clear, Trump's change is a lie and he will be objectively worse for everyone on everything (unless you are very, very wealthy). I also think things would start to improve for the working class gradually if the voters had given Harris another four years. But the losses to the working class have been huge, and the recovery is always anemic, so things are usually a net loss for people.
Look at the Obama administration; he decided to bail out banks instead of homeowners after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. People argue over whether or not that was the right move (and for the record, I think that was a really fucking bad move), but pretty much everyone agrees that the recovery that he created was pretty slow. The economy did recover though, and by the end of his term, it was actually very strong. Now, if you were someone who weathered the crisis alright, great, you're 401K got better! But if you lost your home in the mortgage crisis, got laid off, lost your life savings...that slow recovery killed you, and when Democrats start telling you that the economy is good, you're gonna wonder what the fuck they're talking about.
By making sure they can buy groceries.
The economy is not better off in the lower half.