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this post was submitted on 15 Nov 2024
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Bernie won fewer votes in Vermont, his home state, than Kamala. One of the rare incumbent Democratic Senators who actually underperformed Harris.
I go back and forth, but I do think Sanders would have had good odds in 2020. We had the same "I can't vote for the status quo" non-arguments going around and a semi-populist candidate arguing for all the things people desperately needed (a socioeconomic safety net, basically) at the height of COVID and civil unrest would have done well. That said, an old white guy who was "warm and safe and was in the same room as Obama a few times" was probably still the right play.
But yeah. In 2024 when all people care about is "not the status quo" and "why eggs expensive"? A guy arguing for MORE government programs does not fair well against "Yo, what if we got rid of all taxes and government funding? Don't ask where the money is going"
This is something I've always tried to get people to understand.
If you're running for office, and your opponent is saying monkeys flying out of your ass are terrorizing the city and causing a huge problem, you'd be right to want to write them off as an unhinged lunatic with no grasp on reality, because anyone can see there are no flying monkeys. Should be pretty cut and dry; ignore him and let him go back to giving sermons to pigeons in the park.
But if 51% of the voting base believes that monkeys flying out of your ass are their top concern, you had better come up with a solution for the flying monkeys. Of course, you could try to appeal to reason and logic and point out that you have pants on and there are no flying monkeys. But if 51% of voters are hooked on the flying monkey problem, you'll be making those appeals during your concession speech, while your opponent will suddenly point out that there are no flying monkeys because he managed to solve the problem on day one.
That's just the reality of running for office. Sometimes, feels win out over objective reality. There are a certain number of voters who fall into this category, and those voters were always out of reach. You cannot use logic to persuade someone to change a position they didn't logic their way into to begin with.
You don't need to concede to their belief and subsequent policies if they aren't grounded in reality, like on immigration. You provide a counter narrative grounded in reality that actually address their needs and concerns, real or perceived.
The Republican narrative on immigration is that immigrants are criminals, bringing crime and drugs into our country to kill our citizens, steal jobs, and exploit welfare, so we need mass deportations. None of that is based on reality.
US citizens are responsible for smuggling in drugs. Immigrants are responsible for less crime per capita than US citizens, use much less welfare than citizens, and contribute far more than they use. The underlying fear is cost of living and safety. So a counter narrative that both points out the realities of mass deportation, aka concentration camps, and provides real solutions to the problems, would absolutely capture those voters and fracture the Republican base.
Those real solutions would include legalization of illegal immigrants to stop companies from exploiting both them and citizens with a two-tier immigration system, increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthy to pay for universal social services, systemic solutions to addiction and homelessness, and increasing security to catch smugglers at points of entry. All of which are popular. You address their fears, improve their material needs, and point out how terrible the oppositions 'solutions' are, all without conceding to the Republican framing based on racist lies.
In fact, many progressive policies are popular across the board, including Republicans and independents.
Polls on campaign messaging
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Polls on policy
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That is why trump and vance were so adamant about no fact checking during the debates. All they had to do was say "nuh uh. I saw it on the news" and the moderators couldn't really do much.
Which gets back to the underlying problem of Democrats not actually having a way to communicate with voters. Because even when Fox was saying "Just to be clear for legal reasons, there is no evidence of Haitian immigrants eating dogs" it was followed with "now let's see what else god emperor trump has to say".
Whereas Democrats? We had people who were more interested in attacking Biden than trump (even after he stepped down) and who mostly just said "ha ha, trump says stupid shit."
Because, yeah, logic can't beat vibes. But we also weren't putting out the vibes the way we were in 2020.
Okay now do swing states, the only states that actually end up mattering in presidential elections. Bernie captivated audiences on Fox news during his campaign, appeared in Republican town halls and listened to people. Id bet you dollars to donuts Bernie would outperform her by miles in the swing states.
... So he would do worse in the solid blue states but better in the purple states because... red leaning voters are secretly socialists but blue leaning voters are neoliberal scum?
Read my comment again and dont skip the part about him being well recieved on Fox News and Republican town halls. Its right there why ignore it? Was kamala as well recieved by fox news viewers?
I must be a little slow.
Please explain to me why you think that a candidate who is CONSIDERABLY farther to the left than Kamala is going to outperform her with republican voters. Unless it really is just "he did a good interview on fox". And how that would apparently be better even though he was doing worse with blue voters.
Here is a hint: It is because he has a dick and people are misogynistic as fuck. And you know who else has a dick (as documented in multiple sexual assault and rape allegations)?
I think you're right, you are a little slow. It was more than one interview, it was more than one town hall. People voted for abortion and trump on the same ballot and you cant fathom working party politics playing better among those people?
You're either slower that you admit or purposfully ignorant to further your opinion. You add nothing to a conversation and ignore or belittle anything contrary to your viewpoint. Find someone with more time to invest in teaching slow people, because I may as well be talking with a Republican the way you twist everything I write.
But... I didn't vote for Bernie in either primary. So I guess that makes me a lefitst? I mean, I consider myself to be more of a very progressive (American definition of) liberal but... your logic is infallible.
Also: You need to actually make a point before you huff off in a mess of ad hominem. But I am sure all us slow people don't understand the 9-d chess you are explaining to us or whatever.
I assure you there are Fox news viewers in Vermont, too.
Okay?
Given his lackluster election results, apparently they don't actually find him very captivating.
Youd be wrong. Youd also be wrong to automatically assume they didn't vote for him, unless you have any data that says that. In fact wasn't Democrat turnout down while Republican turnout was up? If hes missing votes it makes way more sense its from dems who stayed home. Unless you have any data that says otherwise, the lower dem turnout in all non swing states explains that a lot better than assuming all fox news viewers simply voted against him. Especially since Trump lost the VT primary. More than half the republicans in that state voted against him during the pimary in favor of Niki Haley, how many of them you think went back to Trump? They clearly don't mind voting for a woman.
I'm saying that unlike nearly every other Democratic Senator, he performed worse than Harris. That's a lackluster result.
If he somehow won Fox News voters, then it was at the expense of losing even more voters elsewhere. That's not a recipe for winning nationwide.
And no, you cannot blame it on Vermont. Harris turned out Vermont voters, why couldn't Sanders turn out as many as she did?
7% of votes this cycle were bullet votes, no downballot races at all, that's up from about half a percent typically. Harris got more votes simply because of the race she was running in.
So people were literally voting for Harris, but refusing to vote for Sanders. Whereas nearly everywhere else, people voted for their Senator but not Harris.
That tells you all you need to know.
I mean maybe if they elected president based on who wins Vermont but the actual race takes all 50 states. You can't simply extrapolate one state across vastly different demographics, like all the swing states that Harris lost worse than any Democrat in recent history. But ill give you the point that if we decided presidenr based on Vermont's vote count alone then Bernie wouldn't be president. Trumps from NY, he must have won that state too since you seem to think its impossible to win an election and not do well in your home state. If you think Bernie doesnt beat Kamalas swing state margins you're on something, right wingers constantly allign with people like Bernie and AOC, AOC just asked all those righrt wingers why too, it was a huge article where she got responses why people who voted for Trump also votes for or support her.
That's not what I'm saying.
I'm saying there is exactly one data point that directly compares Bernie to Kamala, and it shows more support for Kamala than Bernie.
And since that is the only place where they can be compared, there is no evidence at all that Bernie would have more support than Kamala in other states.
There are right wingers in Vermont too. That's why their governor is a Republican. Yet among all the people who voted for Gov Scott, there weren't enough Bernie supporters to make a difference.
In other words people were willing to vote for Harris and a Republican governor more than they were willing to vote for Sanders. He simply does not have the support you think he does.
Right wingers do not constantly align with AOC. There very few Trump + AOC voters, she was just interested in hearing from them.