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this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2024
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1 is impossible due to Europe's conviction. 2 is inevitable.
I think 5 has some elements of truth, but a full on collapse would probably be the end of Putin. More minor economic problems would probably lead to koreafication around the current front line.
I don't think Europe has much conviction regarding Ukraine, unfortunately. Most of the larger EU member states are trying to slow their own Russia-backed right-wing movements but appear to be losing ground by the day. It's only a matter of time before the "appeasement" stance becomes widespread and we end up with a situation mirroring the 1930's.
I think its probably critical that political parties focus on defending against russian agression, even above economic issues or immigration issues. Might be time for unity governments if things start to get bad with the US and Russian fronts.
It's hard when there's easy points to be scored by saying "why should we spend our hard earned money on far away wars when we can spend it at home on hookers and blow!"
Well, the biggest supporters of Ukraine like the nordics, baltics, and Poland don't see Russia as far way, but yes, that's the difficulty.
It's surprising that even leftist parties like Sahra Wagenknecht have become open supporters of Russian fascism in Europe.
Yet you already have direct neighbors of Russia like Hungary and Slovakia simping for Putin, so proximity to the threat doesn't seem to overcome the tendency towards misinformation and manipulation against your own best interests.