This is the only take based in reality. Nobody (except us) cares about openness, federation or business models. What matters are ease of use and adoption.

Of course that doesn't mean that the other takes are missing the mark in terms of history possibly repeating itself in the future. But if it does, that just means that (as is to be expected) the people don't make momentary decisions with a bigger (collective) picture in mind. Design needs to address individual needs first and foremost especially when it comes to social media.

Nobody joins a platform to beat corporate ownership of people's digital lives. BlueSky manufactured adoption by starting out as an invite-only cool kids club. Having to pick a fediverse instance is an entry barrier. There will always be a lot less money to throw around when you're trying to create something under the umbrella of freedom and openness. I don't see how these movements could ever win, even if they provide an arguably better product.