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this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2024
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I'm skeptical. While it might look like they are a decade behind, this is basically as far as they can go without EUV lithography for which they have no expertise themselves and no access to the machines from the outside world.
ASML is the world supplier. And recently Canon showed some promising results. But both companies are prohibited from sharing anything with China. And even if China could get access to the machine specs, lack of expertise in how to properly run them wouldn't help them much.
They lacked expertise in everything about cars and now they're 10-15 years ahead of everyone about EVs. Taiwan will be Chinese (like Hong-Kong became Chinese not so long ago). I think barring access to ASML and other tech just buys time and force them to go forward.