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this post was submitted on 20 Dec 2024
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There a good chance PP will just get more conservative votes in already conservative areas and still end up with a minority.
At that point he’ll have to find another party to work with and he’s already pissed them all off.
What are you basing this on?
The way Canadian elections work.
If more people in rural Alberta vote conservative it won’t add to their seat count but it’ll add to their lead in the polls.
Yes, but what makes you think that that could possibly be what's about to happen?
I think it is far more likely that liberal voters turnout will be down because of trudeau fatigue, this will cost the liberals battleground ridings. I think conservatives will have higher turnout than normal in traditional red seats since there is now a chance of their vote mattering. And I think that will cost the liberals even more seats.
I base this prediction on liberal party performance in the last two by-elections.
So yours is as much as a guess as mine is?
Conservative voters always vote conservative in every election. Progressive voters and swing voters only vote whenever the hell they feel like it. If conservatives are going up in the polls, that means moderates or progressives are intending to vote conservative, (edit: or that fewer progressives or moderates are planning to vote at all) not that more conservatives are planning to vote instead of not vote.