this post was submitted on 09 Mar 2025
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A Boring Dystopia
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You're totally right and normally I would ride the dip. But we're not in normal times. I'm thinking recession inevitable, depression possible. I'll try not to miss the bottom of the dip, but that could be years from now. I'm happy with my decision.
He will say something incredibly stupid just about every day, you can take that to the bank. After delaying the tariffs again he announced 250% tariff against Canadian dairy because he misunderstood their variable tariff protection scheme. Even if the tariffs never officially come to pass, this on and off shit is terrible. The market is irrational but it hates uncertainty.
The first rule of investing is accepting you are not smarter than the market.
Not having that money invested is a huge mistake.
Not having it invested has "saved" me thousands of dollars so far. This could be a full on depression coming. The market is not smart. It is irrational.
You have to be correct TWICE in order to make money off that bet though. Unless you buy back in right now, the chances you'll get back in at the right time are very low.
We'll see. I would have "lost" another several grand today if I'd stayed in. So I'm right once. Given that I check the market several times each day, it would have to be one hell of a jump for me to miss it at this point. But I doubt it's coming any time soon.
This isn't luck or gambling. This is recognizing that the economy is being destroyed either purposefully or through wild incompetence. Right now the market is reflecting that.