this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2025
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China gets Taiwan. The US isn't starting a nuclear war over some small island off China's coast with the remnants of China's former government. IIRC Taiwan denuclearized already some decades ago at the behest of the US, but I think China would greatly prefer a voluntary reunification, and IIRC that's what it's on the way to politically with the Taiwanese parliament.
Of course the US security state will hand wring over "Chinese/Communist Imperialism" (lol the fucking gall), and maybe use it to stir up jingoism at home for whatever war they want and have some meager chance at winning (Iran maybe?) if they waste enough lumpen lives on it and will also take the opportunity to drive down proletariat material conditions under its guise because they can't realistically maintain the conditions they've had while maintaining bourgeois gains without more empire.
Do you think that there's a chance there could be a small guerilla movement supported by the US in Taiwan if China takes over
Maybe. It's definitely something the US has a history of, but is Taiwan's current state even popular enough to support that kind of movement?
They could try but with the way China's routed out so many CIA assets on the homelands I feel any movement in Taiwan would get outed pretty quick.
Could you expand on the section about "thats what it's on its way too in the Taiwanese parliament"?
Here's a great overview of the current political conflict in Taiwan from someone living there: https://m.youtube.com/live/DU0LSsWBtx8
The pro-US DPP is losing popularity because their independence stance is hurting the economy (because China is Taiwan's largest trading parter, so cutting it off for the US is fucking stupid). All the DPP does is yell about independence and the China threat while Taiwan's econony is stagnating and living costs are increasing.
In response, a former DPP-aligned mayor Ko Wenje broke away and founded his own party, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) in 2019. The party positions itself as centrist, but in practice votes with the KMT more often.
In the most recent 2024 legislative elections, the DPP got 51 seats and lost its majority, the KMT got 52 seats, and the TPP got 8 seats. Because in practice the TPP votes with the KMT, the DPP essentially does not have control of the legislature anymore. However, the DPP still controls the presidency and executive branch, winning 40% of the vote in the 2024 presidential elections.
In response to the KMT and TPP's success, the DPP used the executive-controlled prosecutor's office to arrest Ko Wenje on dubious corruption charges. This had resulted in massive protests against the DPP in Taiwan, denouncing them as anti-democracy.
The DPP has used its US connections to institute a media blackout on the topic. Notice that these protests have almost no visibility in the international media and are only reported on by a select few Taiwanese news outlets. ^[https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202501110007] ^[https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/03/taiwan-constitutional-crisis-dpp-kmt-legislature/]
Wow, if China did that we would be hearing about the ebil xixipee like no other
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
It prolly refers to Taiwan's historically pro-unification Guomindang and People's Party, led by the increasing ex-green turned blue leader Ko Wen-je, gaining more seats in the Legislative Yuan.
Yes! I also is interested in that because I can't find anything about that anywhere!
See my comment with resources on the topic.
Thanks for your work!