this post was submitted on 28 Mar 2025
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I finally read the linked post... So BoJo went and BoJo discouraged Zelensky from signing a peace agreement, alright. But apparently the draft peace agreement made insane concessions to Russia: Not only would Russia likely have kept Crimea, Donezk and Luhansk, Ukraine would have had to limit the size of its army, stay neutral, and stay out of Nato and similar organizations. Russia would even have a veto on any action taken by the five security guarantor nations named in the peace accord.
Signing that thing would have been bonkers. And it would likely have ended in a repeat of actions post-Minsk agreements anyhow.
For Biden's US, I'd still say [citation needed] here. Biden certainly jumped at the chance to sell LNG, and make some short-term profit. However, both him and Obama before him were trying to build a legacy. For Obama, it was the ACA and withdrawing troops from Iraq/Afghanistan (RIP). Biden's big project was the IRA, transitioning a fossil superpower, creating well-paid domestic MINT and blue-collar jobs.
I was trying to go for a German accent. (Dutch is at least a little cute, too.)
Critically, Ukraine could still be part of the EU and be covered by the collective EU defense agreement. The concessions were object of negotiations. Negotiations don't kill people.
This war is AUKUS all over again, the yanks and Barries step in to disrupt any kind of peaceful agreement and reinforce enmity and conflict. The initial deal with France was meant to patrol the AU territorial waters, nuclear submarine capabilities is meant to be a provocation to China. Imagine China or Russia equipping Cuba with nuclear capabilities... Oh wait.
While there would have been additional talks, from these earlier demands for concessions, I think it's clear that Ukraine would have gotten a shit deal. A deal guaranteeing at best a fragile peace of mind. I have no doubt that whatever the contract would have said about EU membership, any such campaign from the Ukrainian side would have been the target of massive propaganda campaigns.
Otoh, Russia, the attacking(!) country, would not have had to limit the size of its army or give up nuclear weapons or give up territory. The only way Putin could have read such a deal is as an encouragement to go attack some more countries and snag some territory.
In addition, during his entire political career, Putin has been a scheming, power-hungry, vile person. He's someone who has proven incapable of running a country peacefully and largely incapable of creating a modern state or prosperity. Someone who betrayed Ukraine post-2014. Ffs, the man came into power by false-flag bombing apartments and using the fallout for political gain.
Insisting US & UK were trying to keep the war going, just so they coild sell more fossil fuels is imnsho complete nonsense.
We can agree to disagree. We both agree Putin is a vile bastard. I think Bojo and any US candidate allowed to win a presidency are equally vile. You disagree on that point. It's ok if we agree to disagree.
What matters is now there's no turning back, the US is a hostile power as is Russia and Europe is finally, after years of exploitation, waking up to that fact.
If the draft peace accord from 2022 was shite (and, from all I know, it was), massively disadvantaging Ukraine and resulting in a brittle peace at best, it becomes irrelevant to this discussion how either of us feel about Boris or Biden. The only question is whether there was serious offer from Putin. Or whether the war has dragged on, precisely because there was no serious offer.