this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2025
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Technology
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Thank you, it is refreshing to see someone honestly and earnestly engaging in a conversation about this. The "Tor is a honeypot" thing is very often an all but religiously held belief.
To truly and reliably de-anonymize Tor traffic, one would need to run over 51% of all Tor nodes. Since the US is not the only entity potentially interested in that (Russia and China might be as well), unless these entities coordinate and share data, they will thwart one another from reaching that kind of saturation.
It might be possible to somewhat fuzzily reason about Tor users by observing traffic on both sides of the tunnel, using timing and packet sizes for analysis. But a). it is going to be very fuzzy; b). it requires global network observation capability. NSA might or might not have that to some extent, but they would not risk exposing that for anything but the most valuable targets.
VPNs are a specific tool for a specific thing, they don't "preserve privacy" in the general sense. You are basically trading ISP's or local spooks' ability to observe your traffic for VPN's operator's and the local spooks' there ability to do so. In some cases it makes sense, in some – not so much.
Depends on your threat model.™