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this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2023
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There were multiple polls before the invasion, and some probably contradict each other, but before we go off on an internet argument digging through polls, my main point is that the war is killing hundreds of thousands of people, half a million already, and nudging us toward world war 3, and since Putin probably won't back down for security and economic reasons, it's either compromise or drag this out to the last Ukrainian. At minimum, if you want to end this shit, a binding guarantee to not join NATO should be on the table, and Russian access to Sevastopol. I would wager that the main reason Russia wants to retain some of eastern Ukraine is to maintain a border buffer against NATO.
*For an example, this 2015 survey polled Ukrainians on a range of topics and broke down the results by region. On page 18, residents of Donbas are asked the question, "How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?" For Russia, the breakdown is as follows: 5% very warm, 39% warm, 42% neutral, 5% cold, 1% very cold, 9% difficult to answer or no answer.
**To clarify, the survey does not show the Donbas wanting to join Russia (see page 22: 75% want to remain part of Ukraine in some form) or welcoming an invasion (page 27, surprise most people do not want war), but it does show that a plurality preferred economic ties to Russia (33%) over economic ties to the EU (21%) (page 41), and that only 16% in the Donbas wanted to join NATO (page 43).