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this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2023
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The only thing I have to add to this is this: the "ostensibly disillusioned right" is significantly larger than a lot of people thought it was. And the sheer number of them means that no, they aren't just a fringe group. They are large enough to make the rest of the party fall in line whether they want to or not, because they know that moderates cannot mathematically win without them. They're not even the majority in their own party, but they're still large enough to be able to say "If we don't get our way, nobody else is getting their way either. Including you."
Based on Trump's approval ratings and the obsequious hands that flew up at various speeds when Brett Baier asked if the GOP nominees would support Trump even if he's convicted in a court of law, I've yet to see convincing evidence that the balance leans heavier toward those who are utterly repulsed by the state of their party than it does toward those who are only mildly inconvenienced but still calmly comfortable knowing they won't be first in line for the firing squad. I would certainly love to be proven wrong, but I'm just not sure we're there yet, and I don't really know what it would take to get us there. Just seems like they're a lot better at saying they disapprove than showing they do.
They're not large enough to have any mandates at the federal level, currently. That math changes dramatically if they win, and pull off their proposals.
The 2024 election will either elevate them to true power or break the back of this movement, as we saw with the Tea Party. If they don't secure some actual, not-easily-undone wins in the near future, the party will devour itself from within.
Maybe the most defining characteristics of this bloc is that they need to win or they hold the losers as responsible - this has been true for every appointment, every lower-tier repz their view of the opposition, and basically everyone on Earth except Trump himself.
2016 was the start of what ended up being a defining war for the heart of America and 2024 will be modern America's Waterloo, one way or the other.
They have enough control in enough states to effectively "take their ball and go home" if they don't like the way things turn out next year. It doesn't take an overall majority, just a few local pluralities.