this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2025
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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Only two years left of world’s carbon budget to meet 1.5C target, scientists warn | reaching threshold would ramp up catastrophic weather events, further increasing human suffering (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 1 month ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Some sources said 2023 was first to hit +1.5C. Must have been 1.495C. This year is ahead of 2023. CO2 measurements this spring were above the decades 2.5ppm per year, which was the highest decade increase. Temperature increases lag CO2 levels.

Forest fires and spread are at high activitity at current temperatures. Arctic ice keeps shrinking without record temperatures. Natural methane releases even as human activity methane gets deregulated.

There is no expectation of seeing a temperature decrease even if 2025 ends up 3rd instead of 2nd. The precision for exact carbon budget may have been overestimated.

[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 3 points 1 month ago

It was never that precise; it was a budget for a 50% chance of keeping a long-term average below a given number