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If Iran gets their own nukes, one of Russia's most important allies in the region is safe from attack. That seems a lot more useful than a "bargaining chip". Now, Russia risks losing an important ally and whatever bargaining chip they may have had.
You're reading the play like Russia wants an ally.
What they want is a dependent.
Iran supplies an absolute shit ton of military supplies to Russia.
Yeah. You think Russia is doing shit for free?
Only empires can have dependency, Russia isn't nearly that strong. Russia needs allies or it will be overwhelmed.
But Russia thinks it's an empire and acts accordingly, reality be damned.
So you think they're stupid.
Glances at Belarus
Yeah. Okay.
Belarus has basically been driven out of the European economy, but that's hardly something Russia did. If Russia has become an empire and Belarus has lost its sovereignty it's because Europe decided to force the issue. Bad move, I guess?
Or maybe Belarus and Russia are just allies and they're working together like normal allies do.
Either way, comparing this to Iran is absurd! Iran has ten times the population. Plus, China is right there. It wouldn't work.
I agree with most of the points you’re raising in this thread but Belarus is definitely a Russian puppet state more so than a conventional ally.
Look at that, it's working.
I think you should look at a map sometime. Unless you are taking about Russia-China relations, but that doesn't seem to be the context here.
What's working? Iran isn't any more dependent on Russia than it was before the strikes.
There are just as many countries between Iran and Russia as there are between Iran and China, I don't see why Iran would have to allow itself to be dependent on Russia when China is just as close. Granted, Russia and Iran border the Caspian Sea so they can access each others' ports, but Iran also has ocean coast so it can access Chinese ports as well. In terms of raw numbers, Iran's exports to China value $4.59B and imports value $10B. Trade with Russia, by comparison, is $1.9B. Total.
China is actually a closer economic partner with Iran than Russia is, so why wouldn't Iran be able to turn to China?
Also, Iran is a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Also also, Iran is an observer member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and looks to be in the process to become a full member eventually.
Also also also, Taiwan condemned Iran's strikes against Israel, so you know they're tight with China lol
Then why would you say China is "right there" as an argument.
Also, the premise is not that Iran is a puppet state of Russia, but that they are dependent on Russia for security from other nuclear-armed countries. Russia doesn't want Iran to get nukes because they lose that valuable bargaining chip.
Let's sum up your arguments so far.
You think that Russia can't maintain control over other nations, and I provided a direct refutation of that.
You think that China was geographically closer to Iran than Russia was, and that is refuted with Google maps.
You need to take a look at the players, their motivations and the "board" and then come back with an actual assessment instead of plainly incorrect and unfounded opinions
I don't agree with the guy, but Russia has dependencies both in central Asia and in Europe. Without Russia's support, the current regimes in Turkmenistan, Belarus and Transnistria would not survive.
Iran, however, isn't one, as you said.
Russia is a real country run by actual human beings. They're not Mordor with a dark lord commanding an army of orcs. And Russia wants allies. They're up against a vast global US-lead alliance system. Of course they want allies.
Yeah but usa is russia's ally
Would have been easy enough for them to be allies with Ukraine, but they didn't do that, did they?
No, they want dependents. Allies have a choice. Dependents have an illusion of choice.