First, let me say that what broke me from the herd at lesswrong was specifically the calls for AI pauses. That somehow 'rationalists' are so certain advanced AI will kill everyone in the future (pDoom = 100%!) that they need to commit any violent act needed to stop AI from being developed.
The flaw here is that there's 8 billion people alive right now, and we don't actually know what the future is. There are ways better AI could help the people living now, possibly saving their lives, and essentially eliezer yudkowsky is saying "fuck em". This could only be worth it if you actually somehow knew trillions of people were going to exist, had a low future discount rate, and so on. This seems deeply flawed, and seems to be one of the points here.
But I do think advanced AI is possible. And while it may not be a mainstream take yet, it seems like the problems current AI can't solve, like robotics, continuous learning, module reuse - the things needed to reach a general level of capabilities and for AI to do many but not all human jobs - are near future. I can link deepmind papers with all of these, published in 2022 or 2023.
And if AI can be general and control robots, and since making robots is a task human technicians and other workers can do, this does mean a form of Singularity is possible. Maybe not the breathless utopia by Ray Kurzweil but a fuckton of robots.
So I was wondering what the people here generally think. There are "boomer" forums I know of where they also generally deny AI is possible anytime soon, claim GPT-n is a stochastic parrot, and make fun of tech bros as being hypesters who collect 300k to edit javascript and drive Teslas*.
I also have noticed that the whole rationalist schtick of "what is your probability" seems like asking for "joint probabilities", aka smoke a joint and give a probability.
Here's my questions:
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Before 2030, do you consider it more likely than not that current AI techniques will scale to human level in at least 25% of the domains that humans can do, to average human level.
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Do you consider it likely, before 2040, those domains will include robotics
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If AI systems can control robotics, do you believe a form of Singularity will happen. This means hard exponential growth of the number of robots, scaling past all industry on earth today by at least 1 order of magnitude, and off planet mining soon to follow. It does not necessarily mean anything else.
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Do you think that mass transition where most human jobs we have now will become replaced by AI systems before 2040 will happen
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Is AI system design an issue. I hate to say "alignment", because I think that's hopeless wankery by non software engineers, but given these will be robotic controlling advanced decision-making systems, will it require lots of methodical engineering by skilled engineers, with serious negative consequences when the work is sloppy?
*"epistemic status": I uh do work for a tech company, my job title is machine learning engineer, my girlfriend is much younger than me and sometimes fucks other dudes, and we have 2 Teslas..
ooooookay longpost time
first off: eh wtf, why is this on sneerclub? kinda awks. but I'll try give it a fair and honest answer.
look, congrats on breaking out, but uh... you're still wearing the prison jumpsuit in the grocery store and that's why people are looking at you weirdly
"yay you got out" but you got only half the reason right
take some time and read this
correct
one note here: "plausible" vs "possible" are very divergent paths and likelihoods
in the Total Possible Space Of All Things That Might Ever Happen, of course it's possible, but so are many, many other things
eh. this ties back to my opener - you're still too convinced about something on essentially no grounded basis other than industry hype-optimism
look I don't want to shock you but that's basically what they get paid to do. and (perverse) incentives apply - of course goog isn't just going to spend a couple decabillion then go "oh shit, hmm, we've reached the limits of what this can do. okay everyone, pack it in, we're done with this one!", they're gonna keep trying to milk it to make some of those decabillions back. and there's plenty of useful suckers out there
okay this is a weird leap and it's borderline LW shittery so I'm not going to spend much effort on it, but I'll give you this
it doesn't fucking matter.
even if we do somehow crack even the smallest bit of computational sentience, the plausibility of rapid acting self-reinforcing runaway self-improvement on such a thing is basically nil. we're 3 years down the line on the Evergreen getting stuck in the suez and fabs shutting down (with downstream orders being cancelled) and as a result of it a number of chips are still effectively unobtanium (even if and when you have piles and piles of money to throw at the problem). multiple industries, worldwide, are all throwing fucking tons of money at the problem to try recover from the slightest little interruption in supply (and like, "slight", it wasn't even like fabs burned down or something, they just stopped shipping for a while)
just think of the utter scope of doing robotics. first you have to solve a whole bunch of design shit (which by itself involves a lot of from-principles directed innovation and inspiration and shit). then you have to figure out how to build the thing in a lab. then you have to scale it? which involves ordering thousounds of parts and SKUs from hundred of vendors. then find somewhere/somehow to assemble it? and firmware and iteration and all that shit?
this isn't fucking age of ultron, and tony's parking-space fab isn't a real thing.
this outcome just isn't fucking likely on any nearby horizon imo
we generally think the people who believe this are unintentional suckers or wilful grifters. idk what else to tell you? thought that was pretty clear
wat
okay this gave me a momentary chuckle, and made me remember JRPhttp://darklab.org/jrp.txt (which is a fun little shitpost to know about)
from here, answering your questions as you asked them in order (and adding just my own detail in areas where others may not already have covered something)
no, not a fuck, not even slightly. definitely not with the current set of bozos at the helm or techniques as the foundation or path to it.
no, see above
who gives a shit? but seriously, no, see above. even if it did, perverse incentives and economic pressures from sweeping hand motion all this other shit stands a very strong chance to completely fuck it all up 60 ways to sunday
snore
if any of this happens at some point at all, the first few generations of it will probably look the same as all other technology ever - a force-multiplier with humans in the loop, doing things and making shit. and whatever happens in that phase will set the one on whatever follows so I'm not even going to try predict that
....okay? congrats? is that fulfilling for you? does it make you happy?
not really sure why you mentioned the gf thing at all? there's no social points to be won here
closing thoughts: really weird post yo. like, "5 yud-steered squirrels in a trenchcoat" weird.
Just I think to summarize your beliefs: rationalists are wrong about a lot of things and assholes. And also the singularity (which predates yuds existence) is not in fact possible by the mechanism I outlined.
I think this is a big crux here. It's one thing if its a cult around a false belief. It's kind of a problem to sneer at a cult if the core S of it happens to be a true law of nature.
Or an analogy. I think gpt-4 is like the data from the Chicago pile. That data was enough to convince the domain experts then a nuke was going to work to the point they didn't test Fat Man, you believe not. Clearly machine generality is possible, clearly it can solve every problem you named including, with the help of humans, ordering every part off digikey and loading the pick and place and inspecting the boards and building the wire harnesses and so on.
I wanted to know what you know and I don't. If rationalists are all scammers and not genuinely trying to be, per the name 'lesswrong' in their view of reality, what's your model of reality. What do you know? So far unfortunately I haven't seen anything. Sneer club's "reality model" seems to be "whatever the mainstream average person knows + 1 physicist", and it exists to make fun of the mistakes of rationalists and I assume ignores any successes if there are any.
Which is fine, I guess? Mainstream knowledge is probably usually correct. It's just that I already know it, there's nothing to be learned here.
it is interesting how after their temporary ban, their focus shifted to “all you can see is the mainstream” meshed with “the governments and stock markets of the world agree with me, like, in secret”, as if these weren’t conflicting ideas. this is tragically reminiscent of the thought processes of several conspiracy theorists I’ve known
and the sudden "I may be too autistic" drops were super wtf too
massive overall tone change without any revision of their position (even the barest acknowledgement of reflection was a "nuh-uh, still think I'm right" post)
which is fine. the bigger topic is, could you leave a religion if the priest's powers were real*, even if the organization itself was questionable?
*real as in generally held to be real by all the major institutions in the world you are in. Most world governments and stock market investors are investing in AI, they believe they will get an ROI somehow.
Still reflecting on this incredible claim.
Okay I realize this esteemed po(a)ster already got shown the door but I happened to read this reply days ago and it kept bugging me
On the face of it, "What you know and I don't" was a weird phrase to pick, in context of their later claims of "I work in the industry [and thus I totes know things]"
The thing that really bugs me about it is that it's as though this person is (apparently? willingly? by choice? something?) incapable of (a certain class of[0]) subjective (value) judgements. And even as I type that out I realize that's almost certainly a hallmark of these types (only uncertain because I've never had to spend thought on that previously).
[0] - they'll go with "cold hard fact" but only their[1] cold hard fact
[1] - this I also want to rantpost on, but probably needs some prep to give it a full NSFW-worthy posting