this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2025
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It does, but not in the way it does in blackjack.
Basically, if you can guess at the cards people have thrown away, you can update your probability map of what is likely to come out.
Most players use a fixed mapping for calculation, since it gets maths heavy. Data could do it in real time and gain a small edge.
He could also correlate betting patterns with historical plays to estimate hands. All good players do this, but data would be excellent at it.
Counting is also significantly more complex for poker than it would be for blackjack. With blackjack you don't have to take the suit into account, and each card except Aces have a static value when trying to add up to 21.
With poker, a single card's value is significantly different depending on the other cards in your hand. A 4 of hearts is only significant of you have several hearts, other 4s of other suits, or consecutive numbered cards for a straight.
That's why most poker players use static probabilities. It gets even worse when there uncertainty involved. E.g. your 40% sure a player had an AK before folding. Along with an 80% they didn't have a spade.
The Human mind is incredibly good at doing calculations like this. Unfortunately it has to be learnt, and is in the form of "feels" rather than actionable probabilities.
It's also important to note that if Poker were just about probability, we would have had computers beating everyone a long time ago. It's a much more complicated problem than that.