this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2025
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Short-tem's definitely gonna be a nightmare and a half, long-term's probably gonna be better overall, but the medium term could go either way.
On the one hand, the AI bubble's burst could be enough to force CEOs and investors to see reality - they aren't gonna suffer any sort of material harm from this bubble, but seeing incontrovertible evidence that AI will make them zero money, rather than all of the money, should be enough to get them to finally fucking stop.
On the other hand, AI not only has horrendous amounts of money put behind it, but horrendous amounts of political capital - far as the CEOs and investors of the world see it, AI is their opportunity to destroy labour once and for all, and will burn the world to the ground if it means their dystopian dreams can be realised.
Medium term is going to be bad. All this AI investment is creating a kind of private equity Keynesian stimulus package. The US economy would have contracted hard the last few months without it.
Once it pops, all of Trump's worst economic policies are going to clamp down hard.