this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2025
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A Boring Dystopia
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Man, I've heard the job market is rough, but I didn't know it was this dour.
I think what will ultimately happen is that we will see an uptick in people being employed in trades, as these are traditionally male roles, well paying^*^ and AI proof.
With an influx of workers going after skilled labour, the companies may initially cut wages - why pay you a good wage when someone hungrier will take a shittier one - but most trades have unions and if the unions get bigger as a result of the influx of skilled people looking for work, then the wages will come back up through union action.
It's kind of an economics lesson in a way, and I'm vastly oversimplify the nuances that are interlinked in this cycle I'm describing, but that's what I expect will likely happen over the next decade or two.
All of this comes at a good time, as trades were big in the 80s, and all those tradesmen are retiring. There was (in the 2010s) a big shortage of people wanting to do tradeswork and now the thing is kind of coming full circle
*= They are not so well paying right now.
I am somewhat doubtful of this. It's not like trades went away... but they are unattractive for other reasons. Here is Europe at least, they are full of old right-wing guys that demand servitude and cultural assimilation from young people joining apprenticeships, and few make it to the grueling end after some years, and even fewer want to continue with the same shop afterwards.