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Well, they are focusing on hydrogen because they can produce that in Japan and not be reliant on another country—which is smart, geopolitically. They’re also a bit like Apple in the sense that they don’t jump into things first. As you said, conservative. Battery technology is still pretty shit. Battery technology needs to advance significantly, but it isn’t because we have plenty of oil (haha, until we die from climate change)
Battery technology is ridiculously good at this point compared to 20 years ago or even 10 years ago tbh. The entire time they were fidgeting with their hybrids, they could've been using that time to developer newer and better battery technologies too. There are several new non-Japanese EVs out there whose range doesn't make me anxious, that I would consider for my next daily driver if I wasn't broke as fuck since 2024 because of... well, long story, let's skip that lol. Or I could get a super depreciated 4 year old uber expensive EV with 4 years left on the battery warranty for fairly little money. Either way, if I was looking at new or lightly vehicles, EVs are now actually competitive.
They can also produce electricity in Japan. Maybe not batteries, but then getting the whole supply chain for the cars from within Japan is unrealistic anyway. They make their own steel, but the iron ore and coal are imported. Plus of course recycled steel is used too, but that comes from all over the world.
What's more, Tesla realized you need to start with high-margin luxury cars (Model S - let's ignore for now the original Roadster which was more of a tech demo made by awesome people pre-Musk), Mercedes realized you need to start with big expensive cars (EQC crossover SUV first, then EQS luxury sedan and then a bunch of smaller ones), Audi realized you need to start with big expensive cars (E-Tron crossover SUV, E-Tron sports/GT car, then also Porsche Taycan within the same corporation)... But Lexus isn't making a big practical electric SUV, nor an electric luxury car. The RZ is okay-sized, but it's a hatchback on stilts, front wheel drive in the lower spec models... Which are already pretty expensive. And because of the rear slope, the trunk loses half its space. Where's the electric LS luxury sedan? Electric GX equivalent for something with a good amount of actual cargo space? The LS in particular would do good as electric because it costs enough that they can afford to put in some adaptive air suspension so you wouldn't feel the weight as much. Plus a moderately sporty luxury sedan with a low center of gravity would be a nice driving experience to get journalists to start hyping up their EVs.
Since batteries are expensive for now, it's best to start electrifying the expensive part of your fleet. It's easier to hide the cost into those. I don't want a hatchback on stilts with front wheel drive and little cargo space for 60 thousand euros before options. If I add just 12k more, I get into a BMW i4 which I'm not fond of the styling of, but at least it doesn't try to pretend it's an SUV that it really isn't. Or the Volvo ES90, which is bigger than the i4.
Now where I do somewhat agree there's a shortcoming in EV tech though: Battery cost. They're still very expensive to replace, and there's no guarantee they'll last 15 to 20 years like most ICE vehicles do. There needs to be EU legislation for repairability since nobody else is going to do it in the current political climate. I'm not going to repair one myself because I don't like playing with anything over 12 volts, but a qualified independent shop should be able to rebalance the cells of a battery, and replace individual cells ideally.
Battery tech being better than 20 years ago doesn’t mean it’s good. It’s just means it’s better than it was.