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That’s not how civil wars work anymore, it’ll be akin to a Balkanization where there are multiple different factions, upstart states, militias and insurgencies. The second will be nothing like the first. The Syrian civil war is a decent smaller scale modern example
Edit: if you’d like a good idea of what it will look like I HIGHLY recommend the fist season of the excellent podcast It Could Happen Here by Robert Evans. It’s from 2019 but wildly prescient
You're right, saying things like "front lines" is an oversimplification. I have listened to a lot of Robert Evans, and I agree that if a civil war happens it will Balkanize America.
With that being said, you agree none of this is happening yet? Surely we are backsliding into fascism and violence, but you would agree we are not in a civil war, because we do not yet have multiple different factions, upstart states, militias and insurgencies?
I think that if there are historians left to analyze this in 30 years they’ll probably drop the start line around the assassination of Charlie Kirk. There definitely are multiple different factions even within the conservative movement they haven’t completely turned on one another, the left is similarly at odds with itself.
When we see the White House calling on generals to be prepared to invade American cities with the military, judge’s houses are being burned down after giving verdicts disliked for political inconvenience, Chicago, Portland, LA, DC are all seeing extreme escalations in state sanctioned violence, states sending their national guard to other states to quell chaos that isn’t there, and mass shootings nearly everyday, sometimes several. To me that’s civil war that’s started heating up.
But if you’d rather call what were currently seeing and experiencing something like The Troubles in Ireland and wait until the conflict is even more overt feel free.
In the 60s we had everything you just said: extreme state sanctioned violence, mass shootings, national guard being sent in, judges houses being burned, many political assassinations...
And they all happened in much larger numbers. There were so many bombings and bomb threats, and tons of plane hijackings, and the overall crime rate was so much higher, and there was so much racial violence, and and...
So do you think the US went through a civil war in the 60s?
I agree that things are looking bad, and getting worse, and this may end up in some sort of a civil war. But it seems you and I have a much different definition of "civil war".
I have listened to part of the It Could Happen Here vision for what could go down, but I'm on the fence. In the 2020 election and Jan 6th, I could see that version of things more: militias creating general lawlessness with a weak federal government that can't maintain peace.
But since Trump arrived on the scene, people have been increasingly geographically sorting themselves by political affiliation. Additionally, we are seeing blue state coalitions form around vaccines and climate change. And now we are seeing folks band together at the state-level and pressure their state governments to take stands against the federal government. Additionally, we are seeing more punitive behavior between states (busing of migrants from Texas, financial punishment of blue states, trying to criminally charge ObGyns providing abortion services across state lines, red states offering Trump their national guard to punish blue states, redistricting based on the actions of another state).
Regardless of how people feel about the federal government, they seem to still see legitimacy in their local governments, and are increasingly using those local governments as vehicles for negotiation.
With all this there is no way we don't divide in some form within a lifetime
My personal guess is the tipping point comes when the 2026 elections are either brazenly fraudulent or disregarded by the sitting majority leaders. If that doesn't happen, then my next bet would be on the 2028 elections tearing us apart like those of 1860.
I will admit, my guesses have some big caveats around international relations. The Trump administration has shown disinclination to stand up to China or Russian, and have all but said they won't defend Taiwan against China. Their calculus may change if they believe participating in a world war will help them cling to power I guess? Trump is kind of a Russian pawn though, and Russia would much prefer the US be torn apart in Civil War than jump in to defend Europe or democratic Asia.
Yes this is a massive boon. Finally the first faltering of the trend started in the 40s towards massive federalization.
It's a boon in that people still want law and order and have a means to pursue it.
But the collective action, unimpeded by conflict, of 150-300 million people is a huge factor in what has made the US so prosperous for 80 years. We are giving that up.
America was already largely prosperous, but it wasn't the sole superpower. I am not sure if that was a worth it exchange(if it was an exchange)
I mean.... The first American civil war didn't work like that either. Officially succession happened over the course of a couple years, but we're baking for much longer.