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I have listened to part of the It Could Happen Here vision for what could go down, but I'm on the fence. In the 2020 election and Jan 6th, I could see that version of things more: militias creating general lawlessness with a weak federal government that can't maintain peace.
But since Trump arrived on the scene, people have been increasingly geographically sorting themselves by political affiliation. Additionally, we are seeing blue state coalitions form around vaccines and climate change. And now we are seeing folks band together at the state-level and pressure their state governments to take stands against the federal government. Additionally, we are seeing more punitive behavior between states (busing of migrants from Texas, financial punishment of blue states, trying to criminally charge ObGyns providing abortion services across state lines, red states offering Trump their national guard to punish blue states, redistricting based on the actions of another state).
Regardless of how people feel about the federal government, they seem to still see legitimacy in their local governments, and are increasingly using those local governments as vehicles for negotiation.
With all this there is no way we don't divide in some form within a lifetime
My personal guess is the tipping point comes when the 2026 elections are either brazenly fraudulent or disregarded by the sitting majority leaders. If that doesn't happen, then my next bet would be on the 2028 elections tearing us apart like those of 1860.
I will admit, my guesses have some big caveats around international relations. The Trump administration has shown disinclination to stand up to China or Russian, and have all but said they won't defend Taiwan against China. Their calculus may change if they believe participating in a world war will help them cling to power I guess? Trump is kind of a Russian pawn though, and Russia would much prefer the US be torn apart in Civil War than jump in to defend Europe or democratic Asia.
Yes this is a massive boon. Finally the first faltering of the trend started in the 40s towards massive federalization.
It's a boon in that people still want law and order and have a means to pursue it.
But the collective action, unimpeded by conflict, of 150-300 million people is a huge factor in what has made the US so prosperous for 80 years. We are giving that up.
America was already largely prosperous, but it wasn't the sole superpower. I am not sure if that was a worth it exchange(if it was an exchange)