this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2025
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Whether they have run 'out' is moot. They've squandered their BEST, at any rate, and aren't bothering to use what remains, and that's kind of the point. Saying that it's 'half gone' is the same as saying it's ALL gone in the context of trying to conquer ukraine. You have to keep a fleet available for credible border defense, future offensive operations (which are now probably off the books) and internal oppression of your own population. And as you say - both in terms of armor and artillery - even if you have remaining stockpiles, you can't sustain this burn rate, and each piece you move forward is less effective that the one it replaced, both in terms of age, utility and the caliber of who's left operating it.
Capabilties degrade when you piss away your army in a sunk cost fallacy revenge project.