this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2025
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Or he's concerned about the five other guys with guns trained on him that all have a cautious understanding that nobody should shoot first. The Soviets didn't nuke Afghanistan and America didn't nuke Vietnam, after all
Are those others with guns and understanding in the room with Ukraine rigjt now?
If by "in the room" we mean "in range of Russia", yes
So you're in your house, right? And I'm in my house. Good so far?
So a guy breaks into my house, and I'm punching the guy in the balls repeatedly. And you, in your house, are currently afraid of that guy.
I think this is a perfect analogy for the current situation everybody finds themselves in at the moment.
Are you seriously trying to suggest that Russia nuking Ukraine would not provoke a serious reaction from the other nuclear powers?
It won't nuke Ukraine.
Firstly, in the Russia you need a triple order to launch nukes. Putin's order is not enough. And the two other people would not want to start a nuclear war. There's no way they'd okay a nuclear strike. And if Putin tried to convince them of that, they'd consider Putin having crossed a line that really does matter. And then there would be a headless Putin standing and a Putinless head rolling on the floor, really soon after that. Putin won't try his luck with that. He knows he'll just die if he does.
And secondly, it's unlikely that any of the nukes work. It's the same as with military trucks' tires. Everybody assumed they'd be never used in reality, so all the maintenance resources were embezzled.
Even if the Russia was to somehow assume that some of the nukes are not duds, they'd understand that they cannot know which one is the working one. You launch 1000 missiles, of which 3 detonate, and they happen to be the ones hitting less important targets. What happens next? Heh.
It would be business as usual for all other countries. Pronouncements wohld be made in the media but no action. This is not unique to Ukraine.
If that's the case, why did the two cold war superpowers not use nukes in Afghanistan or Vietnam?
Do you think russia would have nuked anybody if Vietnam got nuked by the US? I honestly don't believe so.
Considering some of the close calls we had from false positives, yes, I absolutely do think that
But again, if you're so sure that there would be no meaningful retaliation and that Russia would nuke Ukraine just now if it could, why did the Soviets not nuke Afghanistan and why did America not nuke Vietnam?