Ukraine

It's your observable track record that makes it easy. When contemplating an argument with strangers, it's helpful to know if it's worthwhile. That there's a person who would say something interesting.

It's also painfully cringe to read garden variety snark like "hurr durr, russia is about to implode, guys! I swear". Great. Never see those high value responses.

For the last slightly over 3 years I've been reading stories about how the Russia's economy will collapse around summer 2025 or spring 2026. Now summer 2026 seems more likely, but that's hardly a very huge error.

It's very unlikely that the Russia's economy will make it to year 2027.

(And of course: a country's economy collapsing doesn't equal the country collapsing! But of course ut does mean the war cannot be continued, so the Russia will leave Ukraine's territory.)

for the last 4 years

The war is not 4 years old yet, and in the beginning everybody knew Russia could endure a long time, because Putin had prepared for it. In the first year at least, most actually thought Russia would win.

I mean every 3 months ~~for the last 4 years~~ there’s a new news story about how Russia is on the brink of collapse.

It's because they are, and it's getting ever more evident that they are.
But a country doesn't just go belly up in a couple of months. Especially not a huge country with a solid energy infrastructure.
But even the energy is not so solid anymore.

They have problems all over the place, they've had deficits for 3 years now, but that was initially helped by the war chest Putin had saved up to withstand sanctions.
Now money is so low they can't pay pensioners, and the crisis is about as bad as when the communist regime collapsed.
Workers in whole industries have reduced work hours and are only paid less than half of what they used to.
Russia has high inflation and consumer prices are increasing while wages are declining. On top of that Russia has just increased sales tax, so goods are getting even more expensive.
Bus companies now demand the administration allow 80% higher prices for tickets, because cost are going up, and passenger numbers are going down due to the economic decline. Such a demand is quite dangerous, that's what get people to fall out of windows!!
Fuel shortages are so bad in some areas that businesses are grinding to a halt, because they can't deliver goods, and they can't receive goods. Because transportation by truck has slowed down dramatically.
People can't buy gasoline to go to work, and they can't take the bus instead, because many places busses aren't driving either.

It's impossible to say how long Russia can keep it up, because it depends on the population.
But obviously people always try to find a way to make things work, but the decline for Russia is obvious. and they will break at some point.
My guess has been that it will be this winter since the start of the year, because that's when the real impact of the predicted failed harvest of mostly everything will begin to show for real.

I may be wrong, it may take longer, again it depends on when the population has had enough, because I don't think Putin can see a way back to peace, and admit it was all for nothing, that would probably get him killed, but so will continuing this war, but that will be later, and for Putin later is obviously better.

So how do you feel about all the failed ruzzian stories, that Ukraine is about to collapse. Come to think of it, Donny 2 Inches had some of those same fail stories. So what say you, about those, Yuri ?