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Um what? Sorry but you are wrong on so many levels it's concerning.
The Afghanistan forces we fought weren't just a military force scratched together from random people off the street. They were at the time battle hardened men in their 30s and 40s, who's leadership was trained and initially train by US advisors to fight off the USSR. They were a strong force fighting in home territory. (the same goes for the VietCong, and Once North Korea was supported by Standing army of China. The Korean War was lost.) so in reality the "good old boys" don't have that advantage.
Secondly, those wars were lost in part due to Logistics. Fighting a war on the other side of the world is vastly different than one in your own back yard. Our opponents knew they just needed to wait us out. That would not happen in the south.
Next, the politics behind this wars was odious from the beginning. The vast majority of Americans didn't support the wars over seas. A war against the south would be very popular in the north and mostly popular in urban areas in the south. Remember, the south wouldn't be trying to leave to create another American Democracy. It would be for a Christian Nationalist Oligarchy. Their goal would be to reinstate slavery, women suffrage, and the genocide of LGBTQ+ people.
And finally, the military is politically "conservative" but in the economic way and not in the I think my small town with two black people is getting too ethnic way. There would be some military people that would defect, but far fewer than it would take to weaken the US military. Individuals with strong racist beliefs wash out very quickly and definitely are not in leadership! There's a reason the military makes sure units are made up of people from all walks of life. Bigotry of any kind doesn't make an effective fighting force.